RugbyRebels

Zhivago wrote:If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

If the US have made a deal about the long term governance of Afghanistan, I would expect it to be ignored.I assume they'll be sensible enough to keep to the Doha agreement where they committed to not harbour Al-Qaida. They'd be stupid not to. Once the last ground troops are gone, Western ability to influence anything goes as well.

There is terrible corruption in much of the government and it would appear that many of the government's army units are not that keen on actually fighting without western troops and airpower to back them up. Its not entire cut and dried, but if I were forced to wager, I would bet on a Taliban government in the next year or so. This seems to be the most likely outcome to me.

What I think will happen is that the local warlords of old will rearm and also fight the Taliban. The northern tribes were at war before we got involved so that is likely to continue, but I would expect Kabul to fall. Russia might supply some weapons on the side, but I'd be surprised if Putin actually got involved. Now the US is out, where's the gain for him (although countries bordering Afghanistan are already complaining at refugees and the general security situation so there might be some clashes ahead).I definitely think that a refugee flow will focus some minds

As for China - genuinely don't know. They do of course have a land border with Afghanistan but would they be interested? The Chinese government isnt a fan of Muslims within its borders, but then it does do business with a wide range of governments. I would expect more of a development/business type deal with whatever faction is strongest rather than direct intervention.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

If the US have made a deal about the long term governance of Afghanistan, I would expect it to be ignored.I assume they'll be sensible enough to keep to the Doha agreement where they committed to not harbour Al-Qaida. They'd be stupid not to. Once the last ground troops are gone, Western ability to influence anything goes as well.

There is terrible corruption in much of the government and it would appear that many of the government's army units are not that keen on actually fighting without western troops and airpower to back them up. Its not entire cut and dried, but if I were forced to wager, I would bet on a Taliban government in the next year or so. This seems to be the most likely outcome to me.

What I think will happen is that the local warlords of old will rearm and also fight the Taliban. The northern tribes were at war before we got involved so that is likely to continue, but I would expect Kabul to fall. Russia might supply some weapons on the side, but I'd be surprised if Putin actually got involved. Now the US is out, where's the gain for him (although countries bordering Afghanistan are already complaining at refugees and the general security situation so there might be some clashes ahead).I definitely think that a refugee flow will focus some minds

As for China - genuinely don't know. They do of course have a land border with Afghanistan but would they be interested? The Chinese government isnt a fan of Muslims within its borders, but then it does do business with a wide range of governments. I would expect more of a development/business type deal with whatever faction is strongest rather than direct intervention.

Hard to imagine the Taliban negotiating much when they're making such strong gains.

Sandydragon wrote:The number of non Pashtun majority areas dominated by the Taleban is interesting. Either non Pashtuns are backing a winner in the hope of peace, or they don’t have the means to fight back.

Sandydragon wrote:Every time I look at that map I wonder if a Pashtunistan is such a bad idea.

I think the performance of the ANA is mixed. Some units will fight hard but many are less committed and some will change allegiance at the drop of a hat. If there is resistance in non Pashtun area then I’m expecting it to be largely militia led. Many Afghans may accept the Taleban because they ‘won’ against the Americans and other westerners which is powerful propaganda.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Every time I look at that map I wonder if a Pashtunistan is such a bad idea.

I think the performance of the ANA is mixed. Some units will fight hard but many are less committed and some will change allegiance at the drop of a hat. If there is resistance in non Pashtun area then I’m expecting it to be largely militia led. Many Afghans may accept the Taleban because they ‘won’ against the Americans and other westerners which is powerful propaganda.

National borders created without considering ethnic demographics are always a recipe for disaster. Either you have a larger state and have some form of federal setup, or just have smaller states. My understanding is that Pashtuns are essentially Afghans and the rest of the ethnic groups are minorities.

Maybe the US should have carved the country up, but I guess that didn't fit with foreign policy goals. Can definitely imagine a solution where you hand the Uzbek parts to Uzbekistan, Tajik, Kyrgyz, etc the same. Hazaras and Pashtuns get their own state although obviously Pakistan keeps its current Pashtun territory.

Or perhaps you fund the Taliban, or ideally another Pashtun group or at least a more moderate wing if such a thing exists and take the Pakistan parts by force with a non-state group.

Digby wrote:Parliament should be recalled, I doubt anyone has a good idea though.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

morepork wrote:

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

morepork wrote:

Puja wrote:
While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Isolationism may well be popular but that doesn't mean Biden had to completely pull out in the first year of his presidency. And, had he known what at total catastrophe this was going to be, I firmly believe he would have taken two or three years to do a sensible job of it. That's why I think he's lying now, just doing that politician thing of never admitting to a mistake.

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

morepork wrote: You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Isolationism may well be popular but that doesn't mean Biden had to completely pull out in the first year of his presidency. And, had he known what at total catastrophe this was going to be, I firmly believe he would have taken two or three years to do a sensible job of it. That's why I think he's lying now, just doing that politician thing of never admitting to a mistake.

Out of interest, why would there have been a noticeably better result after two or three years?

Puja