Who is your favourite to win

[UKHamlet]

With a little over eleven months to go, who is your favourite?

[Sandydragon]

France or South Africa. Probably France as the stronger.

[Which Tyler]

France - currently, it would require a choke for anyone else - but a year's a long time, and any of South Africa, New Zealand and England have time to come good.
Ireland need to get past the QFs before they enter any conversations

[Sandydragon]

England are on the easier side of the draw so should get to the Semis a lot fresher than some of the other contenders. If thats a good thing or not is another matter.

[UKHamlet]

France - currently, it would require a choke for anyone else - but a year's a long time, and any of South Africa, New Zealand and England have time to come good.
Ireland need to get past the QFs before they enter any conversations

Ireland are looking pretty good right now. I know they have a rep as chokers, but I think they'll do the goods this time - injuries to key players permitting.

[Sandydragon]

If it weren’t in France then I’d potentially pick Ireland. But they don’t look the same without Sexton and in France I favour the French with home advantage to pip it.

[Scrumhead]

France for me too.

It’s hard to look beyond them when they’re in great form, have plenty of confidence, plenty of depth and are also playing at home.

They are on the tougher side of the draw, but their group should be a breeze and there’s no real difference in the difficulty level of the likely QF vs. Ireland or SA.

The opener against NZ is going to be interesting. They’ll definitely be under pressure to live up to their hype and win it, but as with the SA vs. NZ game in 2019, losing isn’t terminal. Either way, Italy, Uruguay and Namibia are unlikely to cause an upset so they can cruise through their group using their squad depth for a big QF.

It’s tougher for SA and Ireland IMO. Scotland are a good side and while I don’t necessarily see them making the QFs, they’ll be a proper banana-skin. If Ireland were to lose to SA, a final group game with Scotland could be very tricky indeed.

[paddy no 11]

France

[Numbers]

France, NZ, SA or Aus, France have the home advantage and a decent coaching setup now so they have to be favourites, SA have ridiculous strength in depth, Aus can beat anyone on their day and NZ are NZ so there's no discounting them.

[Scrumhead]

Very generous to Australia IMO.

While I don’t completely disagree that they ‘can beat anyone on their day’, they’d need a few of those days to win it, which is a stretch.

[Mr Mwenda]

It also holds for quite a number of other teams too...

[Scrumhead]

True, but do you see Australia beating England or Argentina in a QF followed by Ireland/SA, or France/NZ in a SF, then whoever is left in the final.

I don’t. How many times have they put together back to back wins against top sides?

If they win their group (which I think they will), I think they will make the semis, but I don’t see them getting to the final.

[Mr Mwenda]

Oh, i agree. Seems odd to point to the Aussies out of the chasing teams.

[Scrumhead]

It was originally a response to Numbers who had earmarked ‘France, NZ, SA and Aus’. I feel like Australia are out of place in that group.

I wouldn’t have commented on them otherwise.

[Mr Mwenda]

It was originally a response to Numbers who had earmarked ‘France, NZ, SA and Aus’. I feel like Australia are out of place in that group.

I wouldn’t have commented on them otherwise.

Yeah, sorry. My intention was to build on your point.

[Numbers]

Very generous to Australia IMO.

While I don’t completely disagree that they ‘can beat anyone on their day’, they’d need a few of those days to win it, which is a stretch.

The reason I've included them is due to the fact they normally turn up at major tournaments.

[Numbers]

It was originally a response to Numbers who had earmarked ‘France, NZ, SA and Aus’. I feel like Australia are out of place in that group.

I wouldn’t have commented on them otherwise.

What do you reckon now?

[Donny osmond]

its hard to see anyone outside of france, ireland, SA or, with a following wind, NZ. The above discussion about being unable to produce wins for 3 or 4 consecutive weeks seems to apply to everyone bar fra, Ireland and SA. NZ are NZ, even off form they have depths of talent that they could do it. I cant see that anyone else is at the races right now.

[cashead]

Some serious deficiencies with Ireland and France are starting to pop up.

I can't say I've been convinced by the depth of Ireland's talent pool. Scratch a few guys, and yeah. They should, on paper, breeze through their pool but that does heavily depend on a few players making it through intact. Ireland at the moment, are to rugby what South Africa are to limited overs cricket.

France have been lucky to win the last couple of games. They caught Australia asleep near the end of the game to win that one, and as for this morning's game? Let's just say the Jaco Johan social media accounts are going to be fucking wild.

South Africa - who knows? They stepped up big in Marseilles this morning, but they still came up short, and some serious lack of composure from a team you'd expect to have more of it.

NZ, when they're on, can beat just about anyone, but there's also a non-zero chance it'll be Poo Zealand that turns up instead. Based on the last few fixtures, it'll depend entirely on how they went in the last game.

[Scrumhead]

It was originally a response to Numbers who had earmarked ‘France, NZ, SA and Aus’. I feel like Australia are out of place in that group.

I wouldn’t have commented on them otherwise.

What do you reckon now?

I missed this, but you’ll get a better response from me now considering how much has changed since last Nov!

I think pools C and D have the potential to be less predictable with England, Australia and Wales making big changes at the top and Argentina, Japan and Fiji all capable of springing upsets.

In terms of Australia, I thought Rennie was treated poorly. IMO, they are a lot better side than their recent results suggest and he was dealt a very tricky hand on the injury front. Eddie usually does a lot of his best work early on which will definitely help, but I’d also argue think picking up an Aussie side in better shape than the England side he left behind. Borthwick has a full on rebuild on his hands (more in terms of tactics than personnel), whereas Eddie is probably in a position where small tweaks and a bit of luck on the injury front, will pay dividends. I think they should win their group by the third pool game (Wales) which gives them a good chance to rest players against Portugal ahead of the QF.

From a NH POV, England and Wales simply aren’t on the same level as France or Ireland right now and while I expect Borthwick and Gatland to oversee decent improvement a) they’re starting from a very low base and b) there is a gulf in class and that gap isn’t going to be bridged in 8mths.

The 6N will be interesting for England. I expect a bit of a ‘dead cat bounce’ but not to the extent where we really test Ireland or France. Back to basics is probably the key thing and if Borthwick and co can sort out our set piece game and simplify our structures in attack and defence, that could lead to a significant improvement. Again, I think Eddie had us playing so badly that I’d hope we’re now on an upward curve even if it’s not stellar. If he uses the next 8 months well and makes some tough decisions, I think he can make us hard to beat and win the pool. Fixtures are nicely set up too with the harder games first which potentially gives a bit of an opportunity to rest key players ahead of a QF. If we do end up with Wales, it’s an opponent we know well and know we can beat. The element of doubt for me is that Gatland knows he can win big knock out games at RWC. Borthwick won’t have that experience to draw upon.

For Wales, quite a bit of the same logic applies. I think Gatland will sort them out quickly and make them a tougher nut to crack. However, unlike England or Australia, I don’t think they have the quality of players/depth which counts for a lot in a tournament setting. While I wouldn’t entirely dismiss England losing to Japan or Samoa, I’d see a higher chance of Wales losing to Fiji or Georgia (again) which probably means they have less opportunity to rest their front line players. The fixtures help them out a bit there with Portugal in between the Fiji and Australia games, but the final pool game vs. Georgia could be a banana skin, particularly if they need a win.

On the other side of the draw, Pool B looks a lot tougher than Pool A IMO. Scotland are definitely capable of causing upset and SA and Ireland can’t take them too lightly. Also, Romania and Tonga won’t be total walkovers in comparison to Uruguay and Namibia in Pool A. Those are the main reasons why I’m backing the pool A teams to get through the QFs.

If I had to call the knock-outs now, I’d go with:

QF1: Australia vs. Argentina
QF2: NZ vs. Ireland
QF3: England vs. Wales
QF4: France vs. SA

SF1: Australia vs. NZ
SF2: England vs. France

Final: NZ vs. France