Australia v Wales (Sun/Mon)

[Lizard]

Nearly the Match of the Round. This could determine Pool C, but might lead to all sorts of complexity and relying on other results (the boffins on the Wales board have the permutations covered).

I was going to say Aussie look like a busted flush, but actually they look more like someone called Eddie's bluff when he was holding a pair of 2s. Wales won this fixture at RWC2019, but they've split the two matches since with Aussie squeaking ahead on aggregate (67-63). Wales should win this, but the Aussie U25s have a point to prove.

[Puja]

If Wales beat Australia and Argentina beat Samoa, then Australia will beat today's lowest ever ranking of 9th by going down to 10th next Monday.

Just a little extra motivation, if anyone needed it, to cheer on Wales.

Puja


Edited, because I've just realised that the Arg v Sam result pretty much doesn't matter - either winner would go into 9th, so only a draw would save Australia.

[16th man]

I think that an Aussie win us the best bet for England to not have to play Fiji in the quarters?

If that's the case then I may have to abandon the habit of a lifetime and support one of the SANZA nations vs the Northern Hemisphere.

[Puja]

I think that an Aussie win us the best bet for England to not have to play Fiji in the quarters?

If that's the case then I may have to abandon the habit of a lifetime and support one of the SANZA nations vs the Northern Hemisphere.

True, but why on earth would you want to play Australia or Wales rather than Fiji? All three are eminently beatable for us and I'd say they're a similar level of difficulty, but the difference is that, if we lose to Fiji, then we get to enjoy Fiji getting to their first RWC semi-final and join everyone else in being happy for them, whereas if we lose to Wales or Australia, we will never hear the fucking end of it.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

I think that an Aussie win us the best bet for England to not have to play Fiji in the quarters?

If that's the case then I may have to abandon the habit of a lifetime and support one of the SANZA nations vs the Northern Hemisphere.

True, but why on earth would you want to play Australia or Wales rather than Fiji? All three are eminently beatable for us and I'd say they're a similar level of difficulty, but the difference is that, if we lose to Fiji, then we get to enjoy Fiji getting to their first RWC semi-final and join everyone else in being happy for them, whereas if we lose to Wales or Australia, we will never hear the fucking end of it.

Puja

Your analysis is correct.

[Puja]

I think that an Aussie win us the best bet for England to not have to play Fiji in the quarters?

If that's the case then I may have to abandon the habit of a lifetime and support one of the SANZA nations vs the Northern Hemisphere.

True, but why on earth would you want to play Australia or Wales rather than Fiji? All three are eminently beatable for us and I'd say they're a similar level of difficulty, but the difference is that, if we lose to Fiji, then we get to enjoy Fiji getting to their first RWC semi-final and join everyone else in being happy for them, whereas if we lose to Wales or Australia, we will never hear the fucking end of it.

Puja

Your analysis is correct.

I live in the West Country. I dread England v Wales matches cause, if it goes the wrong way, there's thousands of local Welshmen who pop out of the woodwork to let you know about it. 2015 was bad enough and that wasn't Wales who directly knocked us out - I shudder to think what it'd be like for a quarter final.

No, thank you - I was cheering for Wales before I considered that possibility and now it's doubly so.

Puja

[Puja]

Wallabies lineup:
Angus Bell, David Porecki, James Slipper, Nick Frost, Richie Arnold, Rob Leota, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Jordan Petaia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Andrew Kellaway.
Res: Matt Faessler, Blake Schoupp, Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Philip, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Carter Gordon, Suliasi Vunivalu

Looks like Eddie wasn't lying about Tupou and Skelton.

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game. It's like the anti-Bazball. Seems wild to decide only to take one fly-half to a RWC and then ditch him for a sort-of fly-half in the crunch game, but it might work, and lets them get Kellaway into the lineup.

It's still a strong side, but it's one that Wales should be fancying their chances against. I think Australia's main shot here is relying on the traditional ability of the Welsh side to beat itself when faced with a 3N side.

Puja

[Galfon]

Wal going for Fij starters, though must be confident as Beeb have just 14 showing in the selection..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/66889044
( unless Rees goes 1 way, & Zammit the other.. )

[pompey-zebra]

Wallabies lineup:
Angus Bell, David Porecki, James Slipper, Nick Frost, Richie Arnold, Rob Leota, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Jordan Petaia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Andrew Kellaway.
Res: Matt Faessler, Blake Schoupp, Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Philip, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Carter Gordon, Suliasi Vunivalu

Looks like Eddie wasn't lying about Tupou and Skelton.

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game. It's like the anti-Bazball. Seems wild to decide only to take one fly-half to a RWC and then ditch him for a sort-of fly-half in the crunch game, but it might work, and lets them get Kellaway into the lineup.

It's still a strong side, but it's one that Wales should be fancying their chances against. I think Australia's main shot here is relying on the traditional ability of the Welsh side to beat itself when faced with a 3N side.

Puja

It's a tried and tested tactic, to be fair.

[p/d]

As Jones puts it;

The way the team's prepared and come together, I've got no doubt we'll win on Sunday," said Jones.

"But if we don't, sometimes you've got to do the work that allows you to be successful further down the track.

Simple

[p/d]

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game.



Puja

Just one?

[Puja]

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game.



Puja

Just one?

Wasn't he pretty good in the 3N and their one victory this year against Georgia? I haven't watched a huge amount, but I'd thought he was the coming thing before the Fiji game?

Puja

[p/d]

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game.



Puja

Just one?

Wasn't he pretty good in the 3N and their one victory this year against Georgia? I haven't watched a huge amount, but I'd thought he was the coming thing before the Fiji game?

Puja

Maybe. I thought he looked woeful v France last month - certainly borrowed Daly's boots for kicking at the posts - and way out of his depth v Fiji. Probably a confidence thing or regretting having that wonderful mullet cut off.

[Puja]

Just one?

Wasn't he pretty good in the 3N and their one victory this year against Georgia? I haven't watched a huge amount, but I'd thought he was the coming thing before the Fiji game?

Puja

Maybe. I thought he looked woeful v France last month - certainly borrowed Daly's boots for kicking at the posts - and way out of his depth v Fiji. Probably a confidence thing or regretting having that wonderful mullet cut off.

Ah, I didn't see any of the France game. I knew he'd been replaced as kicker by Donaldson because of that, but wasn't aware he'd been bad in general play. He was absolutely targetted and rattled by Fiji though - Wales would've been licking their lips at the though of sending some of their big boys in to rough him up.

Still seems like terrible man-management though - take a young talent, tell him you don't think he's ready and pick an aging player from Japanese club rugby ahead of him for a couple of games, then abruptly give him the 10 shirt and 2 games later tell him you have so much faith that you're not even picking another specialist 10 in the RWC squad because he's your only option. Then, 2 games later, drop him for a full-back. It's typical Eddie, but I wonder how badly it's fucked up Gordon's development.

Puja

[p/d]

Just good old Eddie. Build him up then knock him right back down

[Son of Mathonwy]

Wallabies lineup:
Angus Bell, David Porecki, James Slipper, Nick Frost, Richie Arnold, Rob Leota, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Jordan Petaia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Andrew Kellaway.
Res: Matt Faessler, Blake Schoupp, Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Philip, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Carter Gordon, Suliasi Vunivalu

Looks like Eddie wasn't lying about Tupou and Skelton.

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game. It's like the anti-Bazball. Seems wild to decide only to take one fly-half to a RWC and then ditch him for a sort-of fly-half in the crunch game, but it might work, and lets them get Kellaway into the lineup.

It's still a strong side, but it's one that Wales should be fancying their chances against. I think Australia's main shot here is relying on the traditional ability of the Welsh side to beat itself when faced with a 3N side.

Puja

It's a tried and tested tactic, to be fair.

In particular I find our strategy of looking like winners then forgetting how to play in the last 15 minutes quite thrilling.

[Sourdust]

Wallabies lineup:
Angus Bell, David Porecki, James Slipper, Nick Frost, Richie Arnold, Rob Leota, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Jordan Petaia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Andrew Kellaway.
Res: Matt Faessler, Blake Schoupp, Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Philip, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Carter Gordon, Suliasi Vunivalu

Looks like Eddie wasn't lying about Tupou and Skelton.

Carter Gordon ditched after one shaky game. It's like the anti-Bazball. Seems wild to decide only to take one fly-half to a RWC and then ditch him for a sort-of fly-half in the crunch game, but it might work, and lets them get Kellaway into the lineup.

It's still a strong side, but it's one that Wales should be fancying their chances against. I think Australia's main shot here is relying on the traditional ability of the Welsh side to beat itself when faced with a 3N side.

Puja

It's a tried and tested tactic, to be fair.

In particular I find our strategy of looking like winners then forgetting how to play in the last 15 minutes quite thrilling.

It's particularly weird given the "Gatland #1 Era" habit of getting 2 points ahead and trying (often successfully) to cling on, that we now seem to favour getting 15+ up and trying (often unsuccessfully) to cling on.

[UKHamlet]

It's a tried and tested tactic, to be fair.

In particular I find our strategy of looking like winners then forgetting how to play in the last 15 minutes quite thrilling.

It's particularly weird given the "Gatland #1 Era" habit of getting 2 points ahead and trying (often successfully) to cling on, that we now seem to favour getting 15+ up and trying (often unsuccessfully) to cling on.

It's a work in progress. By 2025 we'll be beating Ireland, France, South Africa and occasionally, Italy. But not NZ. I've given up on hoping we'll get a W against the All Blacks. It seems a psychological battle we're destined to lose before leather hits mud.

[16th man]

Wales being able to rely on Eddie Jones teams' capacity for giving away stupid penalties and to undermine any good play with crushingly bad errors.

[morepork]

In particular I find our strategy of looking like winners then forgetting how to play in the last 15 minutes quite thrilling.

It's particularly weird given the "Gatland #1 Era" habit of getting 2 points ahead and trying (often successfully) to cling on, that we now seem to favour getting 15+ up and trying (often unsuccessfully) to cling on.

It's a work in progress. By 2025 we'll be beating Ireland, France, South Africa and occasionally, Italy. But not NZ. I've given up on hoping we'll get a W against the All Blacks. It seems a psychological battle we're destined to lose before leather hits mud.

This is the year to do it.

[UKHamlet]

Not a bad half. Australia not creating much with their possession. They also appear to be blowing a bit. Losing Biggar is massive though.

[16th man]

Can you imagine playing like this, knowing this existed

[Mr Mwenda]

Gosh, what a disappointing game, I was hoping it would be exciting with Aus giving their all. Wales well worth their win. Wobblies.... wow.

[16th man]

Gosh, what a disappointing game, I was hoping it would be exciting with Aus giving their all. Wales well worth their win. Wobblies.... wow.

It's like all post 2019 England's faults distilled into a pure 80 minutes of ineptitude.

To the point you can almost feel sorry for some of the young players Jones has chucked in.

[UKHamlet]

I didn't see this coming. I thought we would win but this exceeded expectations