Best teams so far

[UKHamlet]

Ireland
South Africa
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..
.
.
.
.
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France
.
.
.

NZ

[UKHamlet]

TBH Any of the above would smash Wales

[canta_brian]

TBH Any of the above would smash Wales

But due to the vagaries of the draw, not before the semis

[Sandydragon]

TBH Any of the above would smash Wales

But due to the vagaries of the draw, not before the semis

True, but we’ve done the whole pool of death thing for ourselves.

[Son of Mathonwy]

TBH Any of the above would smash Wales

And yet, paradoxically, the only one I'm 100% sure we'd lose to is NZ.

[Sandydragon]

TBH Any of the above would smash Wales

And yet, paradoxically, the only one I'm 100% sure we'd lose to is NZ.

Which is bizarre really as they are nowhere near their best at the moment and quite beatable. Except I agree, even if we played well for 70 minutes we would find a way to lose that game.

[normanski]

I’d like to think that if we can keep our first choice players fit and uninjured then we could at least give those top four a game even if we were beaten every time.

[Sandydragon]

I’d like to think that if we can keep our first choice players fit and uninjured then we could at least give those top four a game even if we were beaten every time.

Yep. Plus many of our current players will be around for the next RWC so this is all good experience.

[normanski]

Ireland
South Africa
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
France
.
.
.

NZ

I bet none of the top four would want to meet us if we progress to the semis. So long as we stay relatively injury free we could give any of those sides a good game.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Ireland
South Africa
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
France
.
.
.

NZ

I bet none of the top four would want to meet us if we progress to the semis. So long as we stay relatively injury free we could give any of those sides a good game.

Yeah, we will destroy them with our anti-rugby!

Okay, I'm being a bit harsh on us there (we did get 3 tries after all). I did feel about 50 minutes in that we had it more than won but we just didn't want to play, we just kicked it rather than running it. I guess Gatland has identified that our forwards are poor at carrying the ball so he just took that out of our game completely. And it worked!

[Puja]

Ireland
South Africa
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
France
.
.
.

NZ

I bet none of the top four would want to meet us if we progress to the semis. So long as we stay relatively injury free we could give any of those sides a good game.

Yeah, we will destroy them with our anti-rugby!

Okay, I'm being a bit harsh on us there (we did get 3 tries after all). I did feel about 50 minutes in that we had it more than won but we just didn't want to play, we just kicked it rather than running it. I guess Gatland has identified that our forwards are poor at carrying the ball so he just took that out of our game completely. And it worked!

I mean, considering you already had the precedent of having let Australia come back from a ridiculous deficit in the autumn, I don't see why you would want to change what was clearly working. Why fix what wasn't broken?

Puja

[UKHamlet]

Ireland
South Africa
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
France
.
.
.

NZ

I bet none of the top four would want to meet us if we progress to the semis. So long as we stay relatively injury free we could give any of those sides a good game.

Our most likely opponents are Ireland if everything goes as expected. I don't think they'll be overly worried. We're South Africa Lite according to Sam W, and as they've already dealt with the original, our pale tribute act won't give them sleepless nights.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I bet none of the top four would want to meet us if we progress to the semis. So long as we stay relatively injury free we could give any of those sides a good game.

Yeah, we will destroy them with our anti-rugby!

Okay, I'm being a bit harsh on us there (we did get 3 tries after all). I did feel about 50 minutes in that we had it more than won but we just didn't want to play, we just kicked it rather than running it. I guess Gatland has identified that our forwards are poor at carrying the ball so he just took that out of our game completely. And it worked!

I mean, considering you already had the precedent of having let Australia come back from a ridiculous deficit in the autumn, I don't see why you would want to change what was clearly working. Why fix what wasn't broken?

Puja

All true. And the psychological violence inflicted by another three points when you're already way out of reach should not be underestimated.

[Sourdust]

I mean, considering you already had the precedent of having let Australia come back from a ridiculous deficit in the autumn, I don't see why you would want to change what was clearly working. Why fix what wasn't broken?

Puja

Yep.

If the game had gone on for another 40 minutes, perhaps we could have changed things up at about 52-6? Otherwise, why take the risk? Apparently, we only beat the worst team in history anyway; would we somehow have got more credit for doing it with more tries? Or would the media just have enjoyed another "Desperate Wales Cling On" narrative after a 35-27 win?

I can accept some of the "anti-rugby" stuff when you win by nine penalty goals, and the other team get tries. But we scored three tries to nil.

[Sourdust]

But we scored three tries to nil.

Which should be a bonus point, BTW.

Not beating Fiji by a couple of goals, as good a result as that was. Nor getting four tries against a semi-pro team. Beating Australia by 34 points and 3-0 on tries is objectively better than those. Adopt the Top14 BP system everywhere, now.

[normanski]

I wonder if Wales and England are now coming through as the dark horses in the competition.

[Son of Mathonwy]

But we scored three tries to nil.

Which should be a bonus point, BTW.

Not beating Fiji by a couple of goals, as good a result as that was. Nor getting four tries against a semi-pro team. Beating Australia by 34 points and 3-0 on tries is objectively better than those. Adopt the Top14 BP system everywhere, now.

That's interesting. I didn't know about the Top 14 bonus system:

Instead of a bonus point being awarded for scoring 4 tries in a match, regardless of the match result, a bonus point is awarded to a winning team that scores the equivalent of 3 tries more than its opponent (15 points). This system makes two scenarios that can be seen in the standard system impossible:

A losing team earning two bonus points. (The "offensive" bonus point, linked to the number of tries scored, can only be earned by the winning team in France.)
Either team earning a bonus point in a drawn match. (See above for the "offensive" bonus point. The "defensive" bonus point can only be earned by a losing team.)

For 2014–15, LNR further tweaked its bonus point system. The margin of defeat that allows the losing team to earn a bonus point was reduced from 7 points to 5.

I'm not convinced it's better though, although big wins should be rewarded.

How about using our system but adding - a bonus point for a win with a 20 or better margin OR 4 tries, but limited to one point even if both are achieved.

How about, for those close games where the margin is 7 or less, the winner gets 3, the loser 1? (Maybe this should be a 5 point margin).

[Puja]

I wonder if Wales and England are now coming through as the dark horses in the competition.

Very previous to have England in that category - we haven't really played anyone of note yet.

Puja

[normanski]

You’re right but dark horses do come out of blackness to do the unexpected! Perhaps somewhere in Borthwick’s muddled selections a very good team are emerging.

[Sandydragon]

You’re right but dark horses do come out of blackness to do the unexpected! Perhaps somewhere in Borthwick’s muddled selections a very good team are emerging.

I think England will be hard to beat. But their attack for the most part has been poor so I don’t see them scaring the likes of Ireland France or South Africa. I think their potential rematch with Fiji will be a must watch game.

[Sourdust]

I'm not convinced it's better though, although big wins should be rewarded.

I myself didn't know the bit about the "offensive" point being unavailable to losers. Indeed, I dislike that - a team losing 27-17 but scoring 3 tries to 0 should certainly get a point for that IMO.

But I love the fact that jeopardy remains for the entire match. A winning BP is never "banked"; it can always be taken away. In many cases that will give a huge incentive to a "beaten" team to fight on, and discourage teams from relaxing on a big lead. And teams aren't automatically rewarded for a high-scoring game. Why on Earth should Wales (and Fiji) get a BP for a try-tie, but nothing for a 3-0 shutout?

[Spiffy]

You’re right but dark horses do come out of blackness to do the unexpected! Perhaps somewhere in Borthwick’s muddled selections a very good team are emerging.

Doesn't look like an emerging good team to me with poorly-performing squad members like Vunipola, Farrell, Youngs, Care, Daly, May, Tuiagi plus some others, who are fairly competent but far from brilliant - Lawes, Earl, Ludlam, Sinkler, Steward, Lawrence. They are looking half decent because they have been playing poor teams in a soft pool.
World class players on the England squad : Ford and Itoje. Others like Chessum, Ribbans, and Arundell have some potential but are not there yet.

[Sourdust]

They are looking half decent because they have been playing poor teams in a soft pool.

I suspect you're right but (as with us) momentum is with them and that's very valuable.

I predicted England to lose to Argentina and Samoa, and it's now clear they'll win both. (But then I said we'd lose to Fiji but might just scrape past Australia!)

I'm delighted we don't have to play them in the QFs, they're fast becoming a total PITA to play against. They haven't played anyone good yet, but no-one would be shocked if they did over Fiji, would they?

[normanski]

I'm delighted we don't have to play them in the QFs, they're fast becoming a total PITA to play against. They haven't played anyone good yet, but no-one would be shocked if they did over Fiji, would they?
[/quote]

England didn’t play well enough at Twickenham to put the Fijians away in the last quarter but it was a close game with both now going hammer and tongs to go through to the semis.

My head says England will scrape through but would love to see Fiji win and cause a little havoc towards the final.