Six Nations expectations

[Cameo]

I've said on another thread that I find this one hard to predict but that in some ways this year is our chance to do something special. We have a settled team whereas few others do.

However, this thread is my annual attempt to ground us when we don't win. If we are being realistic, I think:

- 0 or 1 win - very disappointing - time for a shake up.

- 2 wins - disappointing but if we have givwn the others a good go then not that far off par. I'd be a bit down about it but more because I'd struggle to see how we are ever going to break through rather than because wr are massively underperforming.

- 3 wins - creditable par - even though the TOL crowd will be jumping up and down demanding resignations, we simply can't expect more than this. We should beat Wales and Italy (even away) but doing that plus winning against ine of the others is an achievement with our player base. I suspect how I would actually feel would depend on how close we are to Ireland though.

- 4 - great

- 5 wins - Epic.

Sorry, this is very similar to previous years but I just think reflects where we are.

[BaldiePete]

Seems about right. I’d hope to beat Wales and Italy away and at least one of our home games, probably England.

[BaldiePete]

If we don’t win on the opening weekend though, it’s going to be a tough few weeks.

[General Zod]

Pretty much what I would say too, although I think we are in need of a shake up anyway.

Not much of a prediction, but I do think France have an implosion in them sans DuPont et sans le coupe du monde. However, I suspect it will be Ireland who take advantage before they get their têtes in order.

[Jocky]

A pretty accurate assessment Cameo. The first game is crucial - lose that and, without sounding typically downbeat Scottish, we could be going back to the days of a wooden spoon decider against Italy. Four wins would be major, major progress, but there's more chance of me winning the lottery two weeks in a row than us winning in Dublin. 3 wins could be a realistic position of where we are and perhaps we have reached our peak with the pool of players we have. Showing some positive consistency over the coming weeks would be an improvement. Is Toony able to get the best or an improvement out of the squad and tactically find a way to do so against our bogey teams like Wales (away) & Ireland?

[Cameo]

Weird one to review. We only got two wins, which I said would be deflating and it feels that way.

Thing is, we effectively got a third and if you told me before the tournament that we would beat Wales, France and England, I'd have at least thought it would be an exciting year. The biggest downer is that, as we thought it might be, this was a big chance with everyone else a bit off and beating each other.

The other downer is that we just didn't seem to play that well. We have years of sparkling rugby and years of putting it away. We scored some great tries but at times it felt like we were trying to play like South Africa without the aggression or the blitz. All I meam from that is that we were kicking ling and often and hoping to live off scraps. I don't know if we should give the coaches credit for a gameplan that had us in touch in every game (and should have led to 4 wins) or blame them for one that wastes our players' talents. It certainly felt strange seeing Russell default to kicking. He is a good tactical kicker but he seemed to be under instructions to look for the kick first. Definitely not as fun to watch but don't know about effectiveness.

Player wise, we didnt learn a huge amount other than:

- Christie is decent and is in the fight for 6
- Redpath/Jones might not be the great backup partnership we hoped after all.
- McDowall maybe is next up at 12.
- Rowe (and probably Patterson) are decent options.
- Our new props are decent backups.

[Big D]

I think we've become very stale.

We have that one wee loop off 12 variation in attack but our attack hasn't evolved and too often we still rely on Duhan doing something special to win games. And we scored the second fewest tries in the 6N.

When was the last time we tried anything clever with the forwards? A clever line out move, or variation from a tap penalty etc?

There really does need to be a freshening up from the coaches IMO. Whether that is game plan, a change in assistant coaches or GT himself I’m not sure.

In terms of the players, I think Cummings, Christie, Dempsey, White and the centres were positives. Paterson and Rowe look good options too. Gilchrist battled manfully but he's 33 and we can't keep asking him to go to the well.

Duhan is such a boom or bust player that will frustrate in games but then win games for us.

Two captains doesn't work. Pick one and stick to him.

[Mikey Brown]

It’s hard to know what we can realistically do about the lack of depth in the forwards. I don’t know who the next crop of top tight-five forwards are. Cummings looks to have found his feet at least. I’m praying Jonny Gray is due a late-career renaissance like his brother at some point.

Similarly if Sutherland still has it. I’m not sure yet but there was a glimpse yesterday. Will be good to see how he gets on with Franco Smith at Glasgow. He could really be his type of player.

I don’t know if I have a problem with two captains or not, as much as it obviously feels like Darge is a clear second in line to Russell. Allowing our key back and forward to talk to the ref is smart in theory, but Darge seemed very quiet and Russell looked horribly under pressure following the England game.

I think Tuipulotu and White either side of him make his life a lot easier. Redpath I thought was generally great in his direction actions in both attack and defence (bar that one big blip against England) but isn’t experienced or loud enough to direct things yet.

It feels like Horne, Johnson, Harris for all their faults were great organisers. Tuipulotu is fortunately a great player too. Maybe I need to watch it back but my recollection was Russell looked completely clueless vs Italy and never looked in sync with the rest of the backs.

A lack of faith or clarity in the coaching strategy or just poor communication on the field? I’m not sure which. Maybe McDowell can offer more there but the centres are pretty low down my list of concerns. Jones doesn’t strike me as an organiser but is just so good on the ball and much improved defender.

Duhan reminds me a bit of Owen Farrell oddly. The hype clouds everything. He will never be dropped for his schoolboy errors, yet you understand why because when he’s on he’s absolutely unstoppable.

Rowe and Paterson were bright spots. Steyn and Kinghorn understandably got the nod in the later games, but didn’t show half the spark of the two younger guys, frankly. We massively miss Darcy, but again I’m really just nitpicking about the backs when the forward pack just isn’t up to it.

[Cameo]

Isn't a big problem that our team as a whole just doesn't have great hands.

Our pack isn't small or weak and, contrary to assertions otherwise, rarely actually gets hugely overpowered but realistically our attack at its best relies on slick interplay to either put a runner through a whole or to get Russell the ball with something to work with.

However, far too often passes are off target or someone drops it. Whether that is White (his kicking has been great but there have been one or two dodgy passes a game), one of the forwards (Schoeman and Gilchrist come to mind but that may be unfair), or even the centres, it kills all pressure and let's the defencs reset. Its what sets Ireland apart from almost anyone. They can play intricate phase after intricate phase amd rarely lose it or have to reset, we have two or three in us and then we either score or we screw up. I'm afraid some of it comes down to our playeds just not being quite as good as the players in the very best teams. Some of them have to work so hard just to compete that I'm not sure it is realistic to expect them to get the little details right under pressure game after game after game.

The kick everything tactic may have been an attempt to deal with this problem by relying on our defence to keep us in the game and create chances that we back our better players to finish. But if you do that and then don't win, it's no fun. I know not everyone agrees, but I'd rather go down in a blaze of glory and hope one year it all comes together.

[Donny osmond]

I didn't see him say it, but seemingly Dan Biggar, in his new role as pundit, said something along the lines of players need to be consistent at 70+% rather than fluctuating between 30-90%. Which is absolutely Scotland's problem right now. The 30-40-50% crap should be unforgivable at international level, but the good stuff is just used as a carpet to sweep all the crap under.

Bottom line is, as it has been for decades, we don't have the players to do any better across a season or a championship than 'respectable'* mid table.

*not respectable when the players are capable of so much more, but can't be consistent.

[Mikey Brown]

Isn't a big problem that our team as a whole just doesn't have great hands.

Our pack isn't small or weak and, contrary to assertions otherwise, rarely actually gets hugely overpowered but realistically our attack at its best relies on slick interplay to either put a runner through a whole or to get Russell the ball with something to work with.

However, far too often passes are off target or someone drops it. Whether that is White (his kicking has been great but there have been one or two dodgy passes a game), one of the forwards (Schoeman and Gilchrist come to mind but that may be unfair), or even the centres, it kills all pressure and let's the defencs reset. Its what sets Ireland apart from almost anyone. They can play intricate phase after intricate phase amd rarely lose it or have to reset, we have two or three in us and then we either score or we screw up. I'm afraid some of it comes down to our playeds just not being quite as good as the players in the very best teams. Some of them have to work so hard just to compete that I'm not sure it is realistic to expect them to get the little details right under pressure game after game after game.

The kick everything tactic may have been an attempt to deal with this problem by relying on our defence to keep us in the game and create chances that we back our better players to finish. But if you do that and then don't win, it's no fun. I know not everyone agrees, but I'd rather go down in a blaze of glory and hope one year it all comes together.

I think it’s just a bit broader than poor handling. Obviously consistency/execution is part of the skill, but it’s not like these players are incapable of catching and passing. It’s the same trade-off of focus/intensity again. The Irish somehow seem to get more accurate the more fired up they are, whereas we just drift in and out.

It’s great that we’re finding a way to change our approach on the pitch when a game is going against us, kicking more or keeping it in hand more, but it also feels very binary. Against Italy particularly it seemed like some of the guys didn’t really know what the message was.

I’d broadly agree with Biggar. The inconsistency is maddening. Some days we look like a cohesive team, but then it all goes out the window.

The struggle with depth in the forwards is a valid one but it’s hard to imagine how this side could be more settled and more embedded with the coaching team. I just don’t see how we push on from here.

[septic 9]

so let me get this off my chest!
The best generation ever. According to some. In fact many, probably a majority. Well if they were they would not be sitting at a fluctuating between 30 and 90% effecicency.
Reality check is they are not as good as too many kid themselves. Basic skills need to be there years before they play international rugby. Yes, years. The national coach is not there and does not have time to teach basics. IMHO these skills need to be there before they play pro rugby. Pro team coaches should not be teaching a professional player how to catch a high ball if they are a full back; how to kick the ball if you aspire to play 9,10 or 15, how to make a basic tackle, how to make a basic spin pass off either hand if you are a scrum half (yes Mr Laidlaw, I remember).

Problems are much deeper and we can change Toonie or whoever and it won't make an iota of difference. We have had a waste of space last 2 Directors of Rugby, the guys who really should be digging deep and finding solutions (and any solutions won't be seen for years; same reason their failures were hidden for so long)
All the clamour for Townsend's head simply shows the ignorance of too many fans and journos. Something must be done but for goodness sake lets stop attacking the symptoms and try to have a sensible discussion about the causes

[septic 9]

All I meam from that is that we were kicking ling and often and hoping to live off scraps. I don't know if we should give the coaches credit for a gameplan that had us in touch in every game (and should have led to 4 wins) or blame them for one that wastes our players' talents. It certainly felt strange seeing Russell default to kicking. He is a good tactical kicker but he seemed to be under instructions to look for the kick first. Definitely not as fun to watch but don't know about effectiveness.

every team kicks a lot these days. Its a function of law changes and ref's interpretations - both WR driven and as ever produced unintended consequences. Imgine the outcry if you keep trying to run out of your 22, tackled and turned over or penalised. That had been our issue a few seasons back; last season it was definitely Italy's but this season Italy were more pragmatic, kicked more and hey presto what was clearly a good side finally got some results

[Big D]

so let me get this off my chest!
The best generation ever. According to some. In fact many, probably a majority. Well if they were they would not be sitting at a fluctuating between 30 and 90% effecicency.
Reality check is they are not as good as too many kid themselves. Basic skills need to be there years before they play international rugby. Yes, years. The national coach is not there and does not have time to teach basics. IMHO these skills need to be there before they play pro rugby. Pro team coaches should not be teaching a professional player how to catch a high ball if they are a full back; how to kick the ball if you aspire to play 9,10 or 15, how to make a basic tackle, how to make a basic spin pass off either hand if you are a scrum half (yes Mr Laidlaw, I remember).

Problems are much deeper and we can change Toonie or whoever and it won't make an iota of difference. We have had a waste of space last 2 Directors of Rugby, the guys who really should be digging deep and finding solutions (and any solutions won't be seen for years; same reason their failures were hidden for so long)
All the clamour for Townsend's head simply shows the ignorance of too many fans and journos. Something must be done but for goodness sake lets stop attacking the symptoms and try to have a sensible discussion about the causes

I don't think many on here are unaware of where we are. 6N results could have been anything in the range of zero wins to four at absolute maximum this year. We came close to either of those depending on a couple of really world class finishes or very fine margins. Beyond this year we are probably looking at 0 to 3 wins depending on various factors.

Yes there are deep problems, to be honest likely beyond what the SRU can solve by this point. Councils couldn't give a monkeys about rugby (as I found when on club committees) and state schools by and large care very little too due to a number of reasons(again as I found when on a club committee). As you say any solution is years away.

But allowing for that, there can and should still be a review of the Scotland performances and coaching staff. Townsend has been in place since summer 2017. Seven years is already a long spell for an international coach. If he continues beyond this season then it will likely be 10 years in the role up to the next RWC. By memory that will be three years longer than Woodward, Henry and Hansen, four years longer than Schmidt and Cheika (with Oz) and second only to Gatlands first spell in length. Seven years is already equal with Woodward, Henry and Hansen.

Will swapping head coach, coaches or game plan make a difference? Maybe not and I am still on the fence about whether there should be staff changes but that doesn't mean there shouldn't be discussion over whether there should be changes given the extraordinary length of reign and recent performances.

There can be discussion about both with sympathy the the national coach based on the lack of quality coming through. Online people often miss the nuance needed in discussions but that doesn't mean there shouldn't be discussion.

I've seen some eejits who still hold losses to the USA and Fiji against him. Those types don't merit discussion with.

[Cameo]

I agree with all of that. I would say, though, Septic, that I both think it is our best generation ever (or at least in my time watching and that it is flawed).

The problem is people who think it is the best generation ever and therefore should be dominating world rugby. To my mind it is the best generation ever and therefore should be, and is, competitive in most games.

The gutting thing is that we haven't had the year where it all clicks.

On the kicking, I get that everyone kicks a lot and am not against us doing it. However, I agree with MB that our shifts in tactics seem a bit binary. This year, i think we shifted too far to kicking and hoping for opportunities rather than working teams. I do think that is partly justified by the issues with errors when we play too many phases though.