Team v Japan

[UKHamlet]

NICKY SMITH
DEWI LAKE (CAPT)
ARCHIE GRIFFIN
DAFYDD JENKINS
ADAM BEARD
AARON WAINWRIGHT
ALEX MANN
OLLY CRACKNELL
TOMOS WILLIAMS
DAN EDWARDS
JOSH ADAMS
BEN THOMAS
MAX LLEWELLYN
LOUIS REES-ZAMMIT
BLAIR MURRAY
SUBS

LIAM BELCHER / RHYS CARRÉ / KEIRON ASSIRATTI

FREDDIE THOMAS /TAINE PLUMTREE

KIERAN HARDY / JARROD EVANS / NICK TOMPKINS


I'm surprised Blair Murray has been given another shot at FB, when he's clearly not up to the task, although pleased Rogers got the elbow, I just wish they'd shuffled Josh and Blair. Very surprised to see Nick on the bench, although I understand he's been ripping up trees in the Burn-Out League. Not of a fan of Plumtree, although sometimes he plays his size, but mostly he's an observer of things going on around him. Nice of them to give Archie a runout, despite Keiron's seeming success at the set piece (maybe they're pairing a weak scrummager with a strong one). I'm also a bit shocked that Ben Thomas is still in the side. He did what was asked of him on Saturday, but that kick, whether a desperate attempt at freeing his leg (most likely), or a petulant stab at the Argentine No 7, was bloody awful, and has tarnished his reputation. It's also put a big target on his back.

[UKHamlet]

Big Steffan Thomas has kind words. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rug ... s-32866355


Steve Tandy has opted to stick with the bulk of the side who lost to Argentina

Steffan Thomas
Steve Tandy has not overreacted to last Sunday's heavy 52-28 defeat to Argentina in Cardiff. It would have been easy for the new Wales head coach to make wholesale changes but Tandy has opted to tinker with the side rather than wield the axe.

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There are four personnel changes in the starting XV with one enforced due to the campaign-ending injury suffered by his outstanding captain Jac Morgan.

But what does this latest selection tell us about Tandy's Wales who simply must beat Japan to ensure a more favourable World Cup draw next month?
Tandy has faith in the game-plan and his main playmaker

If Tandy had made significant changes it would have been a case of starting all over again so it would be sensible to stick rather than twist too much.

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There was a clear identity to this Wales side who wanted to play with pace and put width on the ball.

Inside centre Ben Thomas did not have his best game against Argentina and he has come in for some flak on social media but the Cardiff playmaker is integral to the way Wales want to attack under Tandy.

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There were errors in his game last weekend and he was lucky to escape a red card for kicking out at Argentina captain Pablo Matera on the floor. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby.

But ultimately Thomas did what he was supposed to do: get the ball away quickly to put players into space.

They also have a relatively inexperienced outside-half in 22-year-old Dan Edwards so Thomas is helpful to the Ospreys man in that sense.

Wales played off 12 last weekend and while Thomas does need to improve his performance he will be a key player in Tandy's squad moving forward.

There were good moments in Wales' game last weekend and while the scoreboard never lies the negatives are fixable.

Wales missed 30 tackles which is far too high at this level, while there were a number of sloppy individual errors throughout which handed the momentum back to the Pumas.

Tandy clearly feels there is a huge amount of growth in the side which took to the field last weekend and they deserve the chance to go again.

The return of Rees-Zammit but aerial game needs fixing

Selecting the Bristol Bears flyer to start was surely one of the easiest selection decisions made by a Wales head coach in recent years.

Rees-Zammit hasn't played all that much since returning to rugby union from American football but he is an X-factor player capable of big moments.

Last weekend we saw glimpses of what the 24-year-old is capable of. He is one of the fastest players in the world game and is deadly with the ball in hand.

If Wales can put Rees-Zammit into space then there is a good chance tries will follow.

But one area of the game Wales were found badly wanting against Argentina was in the air. Join WalesOnline Rugby's WhatsApp Channel here to get the breaking news sent straight to your phone for free

They lost the aerial game hands down and were often second best to the crumbs which came as a result of spilled balls in the air.

It is perhaps a little surprising Tandy has not moved Scarlets man Blair Murray out to the wing but it is Tom Rogers who has paid the price having been left out of the matchday 23.

The positives far outweigh the negatives with Murray who at his best is a scintillating attacking threat.

Murray is likely to thrive against a side like Japan but is not the tallest meaning he is often beaten to high balls.

Wales need to ensure the aerial game is a lot better against Japan ahead of facing New Zealand and South Africa.

The unenviable task of replacing captain Jac

Morgan was head and shoulder above any of his team-mates in Sunday's defeat to Argentina.

The 25-year-old is the only genuine world-class player in Welsh rugby and his loss is a seismic blow to Wales' chances this autumn.

In reality it is going to be impossible to replace Morgan like for like.

Tandy has opted to give Olly Cracknell a first international start. Upon entering the fray last Sunday Cracknell looked desperate to throw his weight around.

The 31-year-old has been outstanding for Leicester Tigers over the past few seasons and is one of the best ball-carrying No 8s in the Gallagher Prem.

Wales have lacked carriers capable of making significant post-contact metres over the past 18 months and this needs to be Cracknell's point of difference.

He needs to carry hard in the tight to get Wales on the front foot, while he needs to bring the same level of aggression and physicality he shows on a weekly basis for the Tigers.

The selection of Cracknell certainly adds a different dimension to the Wales backrow even if they've lost a lot of quality in Morgan's absence.

With Aaron Wainwright back on the blindside there is a nice balance between tight carrying and athleticism. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.

Alex Mann was one of the better forwards against Argentina but he has been moved across to openside flanker in place of Morgan.

The 23-year-old has a big role to play in slowing down the speed of Japan's ruck ball. If Mann can do a job in this area it will go a long way to getting Wales over the line at home for the first time in 10 Test matches.

Front-row changes and a bench that can make a difference

Tandy has freshened up the front-row by replacing props Rhys Carré and Keiron Assiratti with Nicky Smith and Archie Griffin.

It does seem a bit harsh to drop Assiratti to the bench because the Cardiff tighthead had a strong game both in the scrum and around the park last Sunday.

Tandy has clearly brought Smith into the side to go after Japan at the scrum because he is by far the most destructive scrummager in this Wales squad.

Bath's Griffin is known for his huge workrate around the park having made a remarkable 26 tackles on his first start against Australia in the summer of 2024.

Griffin can carry, jackal and tackle, while his numbers are always very high.

But what is a potential point of difference for Wales this weekend is the strength of the bench. They have a set of replacements who are capable of turning the result in Wales' favour against Japan.

Using Carré as an impact sub for the final quarter where he will likely get given the task of carrying hard and getting over the gainline will not be a prospect Japan will relish.

Freddie Thomas is also an effective player when the game is broken up and looser and the same goes for backrower Taine Plumtree.

Jarrod Evans is a 10 who could really exploit tired legs in the Japanese ranks, while Nick Tompkins has been on fire for Saracens this season.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Much less change than I would have liked (see the Japan thread for full details). Tandy's decided to have faith rather than change. Not sure how Adams was better than Rogers last week. Tompkins is a safe option for the bench I guess.

This is a must win for Tandy (OK, not strictly true, we will be out of the top 12 just in time for the RWC draw, but that's just another disaster for Welsh rugby, we'll have to take it coz that's where we are). He won't have a realistic chance of another win till Scotland, 3rd week of the 6N, so this is a pressure match unlike last week or the following two. We won't learn that much from a win vs Japan after a loss to Arg but we really, really need it.

[Graigwen]

Some team changes are uncontroversial, for instance LRZ.

Switching the loose heads was also obvious. Although it implies a different approach earlier and later in the game, we all know both Smith and Carre will get a good chunk of game time so it is not really a big deal. This choice is less important against Japan than against other opponents this autumn. I hope Assiratti can be as active when he comes on as he was in the last game. This is probably a good game to start Griffin, although he was given a hard time last game. I am still looking for his "high ceiling" to appear - he is 24 now and the days when props did not develop until they were 30 have gone forever.

The locks and half backs are beyond dispute. The back row is probably going to be OK although replacing Morgan is very difficult and the selection does not look perfectly balanced. I am glad to see the robustness of Cracknell included. Maybe Morse is being saved for the SA game! It is good to see Deaves added to the squad, if he is not playing perhaps he can bite the other players and infect them with his attitude.

Blair Murray is a winger who was asked to play full back. He has done well in the past but at some point a disaster under the high ball was going to happen. We seem to have got into the habit of not supporting our full back, spoiled by Sanjay's toughness maybe. Winnet took terrible physical assaults as he was left unsupported. I suppose we may get away with Murray against Japan, but an alternative solution is still needed.

As a unit, our centres were outclassed last weekend. I would prefer to see Tompkins starting, he gives us more stability. I don't know what the best combination would be.

Our bench looks strong, Evans adds flexibility to the full back cover and should do well in the later stages.

It is essential that we win, we have the ability but we have to deliver.

[Sandydragon]

Much less change than I would have liked (see the Japan thread for full details). Tandy's decided to have faith rather than change. Not sure how Adams was better than Rogers last week. Tompkins is a safe option for the bench I guess.

This is a must win for Tandy (OK, not strictly true, we will be out of the top 12 just in time for the RWC draw, but that's just another disaster for Welsh rugby, we'll have to take it coz that's where we are). He won't have a realistic chance of another win till Scotland, 3rd week of the 6N, so this is a pressure match unlike last week or the following two. We won't learn that much from a win vs Japan after a loss to Arg but we really, really need it.

Notwithstanding ranking position, I think the Welsh public do understand Tandy’s predicament and didn’t/don’t expect wins against Argentina, South Africa or the All blacks. But Japan they do expect a win against, so that’s probably the key pressure point beyond ranking points.