The Incredibly Premature RWC2019 Prediction Thread

[rowan]

Cheers. Yes, 100% this week, atoning for a few blunders last week. To be honest there weren't really any surprises. Russia was one above Spain in the rankings and playing at home, but Spain's form last year was definitely superior overall.

[rowan]

This week's fixtures:

17.02 Offenbach Germany - Georgia Rugby Europe Championship Georgia by 50
17.02 Sochi Russia - Belgium Rugby Europe Championship Russia by 20
17.02 Langford Canada - Brazil Americas Championship Canada by 30
17.02 Fullerton USA - Chile Americas Championship USA by 30
17.02 Maldonado Uruguay - Argentina 'B' Americas Championship Argentina by 10
18.02 Madrid Spain - Romania Rugby Europe Championship Romania by 10

Georgia v weakened Germany, and the North Americans at home to Brazil and Chile ought to be very one-side affairs, perhaps even blow-outs. I know Canada's in a slump but I watched them play Uruguay in Montevideo and they should've won (still don't understand the hasty drop-goal attempt for the match-winning conversion at the end of the game, despite the aggregate loss). The US have been in good form lately, Chile haven't.

Russia are not in great form, obviously, but should account for Belgium on their home patch, Uruguay v Argie B could go either way but last week's form suggests the latter (Uruguay beat them last year, however), and Spain v Romania could be very close, with both teams in peak form and Los Leones at home. A potential upset here, though I'll stick with the Oaks to win it through their forwards.

[rowan]

Spain v Romania could be very close, with both teams in peak form and Los Leones at home. A potential upset here, though I'll stick with the Oaks to win it through their forwards.

1 prediction wrong this week and that was it. Spain won 22-10. They're in poll position for the ENC spot at the World Cup now, with Romania likely to face Samoa and, failing there, the repechage Spain to return to the tourny for the 1st time since 99, it seems.

[Lizard]

Spain is making a real charge. Their remaining matches are against relative lightweights Belgium and Germany, while the other contenders, Russia and Romania have to play each other.

Spain can sew up a RWC spot with 2 wins and 1 try bonus point. If Russia beats Romania next round, then I think a single win + BP will be enough for Spain.

It’s all more bad news for Canada. If Romania is the European runner up then in the repechage Canada will need to snap a 6 match, 13 year losing streak against the Oaks (including losses every year from 2013). Canada has never lost to Russia or Spain.

[rowan]

Spain has a lot of French-based players, two or three nationalized Kiwis & Saffas, and a thriving domestic league. This certainly wasn't a major surprise, given Romania has struggled at times over the past few years as well, notably during last year's defeat to Germany. & yes, it is now certain one of Romania, Canada or Samoa is going to miss the World Cup, which is about as sensational as it gets in this mind-numbing formality of RWC 'qualifying.' It's also great news for proponents of RWC expansion, of course. One of the regulars ain't gonna make it for a change! All 3 fully deserve to be in this position as well, having been in the doldrums for quite some time now. Pretty sure Samoa will account for the Oaks, and the Oaks in turn are odds on to head off the Canucks in the repechage. Other contestants are likely to be Hong Kong and either Kenya or Zimbabwe. 4 years ago I would've said the Welwitschias were no foregone conclusion for direct qualification either, but they seem to be pulling ahead of the pack now with regular inclusion in the Currie Cup, while the other teams just don't seem to be making any discernible progress at all.

[rowan]

This weekend:

Can Italy upset a weakened France? Probably not, but it might be close. Gibraltar in action, I see. Didn't they have 5 brothers in the team last year or something? Anyway, I'll take the Magyars by a few. Don't think the Makis-Czechs fixture is going ahead. There was some kind of plague on the island last year which apparently put paid to it.

23.02 Marseille France - Italy 6 Nations Championship France by 10
24.02 Dublin Ireland - Wales 6 Nations Championship Ireland by 12
24.02 Edinburgh Scotland - England 6 Nations Championship England by 9
24.02 Jujuy Argentina 'B' - Canada Americas Championship Argentina by 6
24.02 São José dos Campos Brazil - USA Americas Championship USA by 15
24.02 La Pintana Chile - Uruguay Americas Championship Uruguay by 10
24.02 Lisbon Portugal - Switzerland Rugby Europe Trophy Portugal by 18
24.02 Gibraltar Gibraltar - Hungary Friendly Hungary by 3
24.02 Antananarivo Madagascar - Czechia Friendly Makis by 20

[rowan]

75% right last week, tripped up by Scotland & Gibraltar. Belgium v Germany is a hard one to pick this week because the Krauts are still under strength due to the sponsorship issue. Lose this and they could be looking at relegation. Georgia should win easy against a Spanish team that won't want to risk injury to key players, as it's not a RWC qualifier, but there final 2 games are. Romania desperate to at least get to the RWC repechages now, ought to be too strong for Russia at home.

03.03 Brussels Belgium - Germany Rugby Europe Championship - Germany by 6
03.03 Tbilisi Georgia - Spain Rugby Europe Championship - Georgia by 20
03.03 Cluj-Napoca Romania - Russia Rugby Europe Championship - Romania by 10
03.03 São José dos Campos Brazil - Argentina 'B' Americas Championship - Argentina by 25
03.03 La Serena Chile - Canada Americas Championship - Canada by 12
03.03 Montevideo Uruguay - USA Americas Championship - USA by 10
03.03 Amsterdam Netherlands - Poland Rugby Europe Trophy - Netherlands by 6

Las Vegas 7s also begin tomorrow as well, of course: http://www.theroonba.com/rugbysevens/men/fixtures.html

[rowan]

If I'm right about Montevideo, that would be an unprecedented ARC grandslam for the US.

[rowan]

6/7 last week, including one correct margin (Romania) Tripped up by the Belgians. Germany are completely falling apart . . .

This weekend: Le Crunch is more likely to resemble Le Splat this weekend as two misfiring teams go head-to-head in St Denis. I'm going to take the home-side here, a team just starting to show signs of a renaissance, while the English appear to be on the slide. Dublin is also a tough one to call after the Scots' stunning win over England, but the Irish are also in good form and obviously the more consistent, so I'll take the home-side again. Wales v Italy and all the ENC fixtures look like foregone conclusions to me, with the notable exception of Prague, which looks a fairly even fixture, though I think the Swiss have been doing a little better lately.

10.03 Saint-Denis France - England 6 Nations Championship France by 3
10.03 Dublin Ireland - Scotland 6 Nations Championship Ireland by 6
10.03 Cluj-Napoca Romania - Belgium Rugby Europe Championship Romania by 20
10.03 Krasnodar Russia - Georgia Rugby Europe Championship Georgia by 15
10.03 Prague Czechia - Switzerland Rugby Europe Trophy Swiss by 5
10.03 Anenii Noi Moldova - Portugal Rugby Europe Trophy Portugal by 15
11.03 Cardiff Wales - Italy 6 Nations Championship Wales by 12
11.03 Madrid Spain - Germany Rugby Europe Championship Spain by 30
http://www.theroonba.com/rugbyunion/men/fixtures.html

Also got the Vancouver 7s, of course: http://www.theroonba.com/rugbysevens/men/fixtures.html

[Lizard]

Really? France over England?

England may suffer from a lack of imagination and infathomable loose forward selections but France is in full shit-the-bed mode.

[rowan]

9-9 at HT. I've got one wrong so far this weekend, Czechs edged Swiss. I knew it would be close!

[rowan]

22-16 FRance. 5/6 today and I'll be very surprised if there's an upset in either of tomorrow's two games.

Not too shabby

[Lizard]

Really? France over England?

England may suffer from a lack of imagination and infathomable loose forward selections but France is in full shit-the-bed mode.

Ah. Just seen the score. To whom do I address my “credible pundit” card?

[rowan]

Really? France over England?

England may suffer from a lack of imagination and infathomable loose forward selections but France is in full shit-the-bed mode.

Ah. Just seen the score. To whom do I address my “credible pundit” card?

The Prince among Prophets should do. Nothing too flashy

[rowan]

I've been averaging one miss a round over the past few weeks - last week the Czechs over the Swiss, the week before Belgium over the Krauts, and the week before that Spain over the Oaks. So who's it going to be this week? Well, I'll take the Poms to rebound at Fortress Twickers, so that might be it, Wales to burst the French bubble, though that could also go either way, while a few of the lower division ENC games are also evenly poised. In fact, if I only get one wrong again this week, I'll be stoked!

17.03 London England - Ireland 6 Nations Championship - England by 6
17.03 Rome Italy - Scotland 6 Nations Championship - Scotland by 10
17.03 Cardiff Wales - France 6 Nations Championship - Wales by 1
17.03 Amsterdam Netherlands - Czechia Rugby Europe Trophy - Dutch by 12
17.03 Plan-les-Ouates Switzerland - Poland Rugby Europe Trophy - Poles by 9
17.03 Zenica Bosnia & Herzegovina - Andorra Rugby Europe Conference 1 South - Andorra by 10
17.03 Netanya Israel - Malta Rugby Europe Conference 1 South - Israel by 3
17.03 Gibraltar Gibraltar - Finland Friendly - Gibraltar by 10
18.03 Brussels Belgium - Spain Rugby Europe Championship Spain by 25
18.03 Tbilisi Georgia - Romania Rugby Europe Championship - Georgia by 10
18.03 Cologne Germany - Russia Rugby Europe Championship - Russia by 15

http://www.theroonba.com/rugbyunion/men/fixtures.html

Don't think we have any more 7s action till Hong Kong next month...

World Series

Pool A: Fiji, New Zealand, Russia, Samoa

Pool B: Kenya, Australia, Spain, Canada

Pool C: South Africa, England, Scotland, South Korea

Pool D: USA, Argentina, Wales, France


World Series Qualifier

Pool E: Japan, Uganda, Chile, Georgia

Pool F: Papua New Guinea, Germany, Hong Kong, Zimbabwe

Pool G: Ireland, Uruguay, Jamaica, Cook Islands

[rowan]

A shocker for me so far at 4/4 with 3 to come tomorrow, though I did at least get the margin of victory right in Cardiff . . .

17.03 London England 15-24 Ireland 6 Nations
17.03 Rome Italy 27-29 Scotland 6 Nations
17.03 Cardiff Wales 14-13 France 6 Nations
17.03 Amsterdam Netherlands 27-10 Czechia Rugby Europe
17.03 Plan-les-Ouates Swiss 30-24 Poland Rugby Europe
17.03 Zenica Bosnia 20-17 Andorra Rugby Europe
17.03 Netanya Israel 17-24 Malta Rugby Europe
17.03 Gibraltar Gibraltar 17-5 Finland Friendly

[Lizard]

Disappointing for Spain but at least it puts my prediction back on track for Europe 1.

On the other hand, an undefeated England in pool play might not be the lay down misere I thought it was.

[rowan]

I got more results wrong this week than I had in the past month combined. 6 right, 5 wrong. I did say there were a few 50/50 matches there, and basically the only one that went my way was Wales-France. Never saw the Belgian win coming. Their only previous victory over Spain from 14 encounters was in 2006.

[rowan]

Very quiet month or so coming up. This weekend just 4 lower division games in the ENC, and just a handful next month, until lower division Asian competition kicks off in Beirut a month from today:

24.03 Łódź Poland - Portugal Rugby Europe Trophy - Portugal by 10
24.03 Paola Malta - Andorra Rugby Europe Conference 1 South - Malta by 10
24.03 Vienna Austria - Slovakia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South - Austria by 3
24.03 Paphos Cyprus - Slovenia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South - Cyprus by 15

http://www.theroonba.com/rugbyunion/men/fixtures.html

[rowan]

4 out of 4 this week, atoning slightly for last week's debacle

24.03 Łódź Poland 25-27 Portugal Rugby Europe Trophy
24.03 Paola Malta 89-3 Andorra Rugby Europe Conference 1 South
24.03 Vienna Austria 56-0 Slovakia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South
24.03 Paphos Cyprus 13-5 Slovenia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South

[rowan]

As far as I know there's only Slovenia - Austria this weekend and I'll take the visitors by 10.

[rowan]

As far as I know there's only Slovenia - Austria this weekend and I'll take the visitors by 10.

Sorry, that's not till next weekend. & there's no other international action until the following week when a couple of lower division European encounters will be played.

[rowan]

As far as I know there's only Slovenia - Austria this weekend and I'll take the visitors by 10.

Result: Slovenia 18 - 22 Austria

Not bad

[rowan]

Almost forgot! In fact, one already slipped through the net with Jordan apparently defeating Saudi 25-13 in a friendly but official test this evening.

14.04 Luxembourg Luxembourg - Finland Rugby Europe Conference 2 North - Lux by 10
14.04 Nikšić Montenegro - Bulgaria Rugby Europe Development - Bulgaria by 20

Just commented on the Statistic of the Day Thread that Bulgaria debuted way back in 1963, so how on earth they can still be in the "development" competition is anyone's guess. But I'll take them to win comfortably in Montenegro regardless.

[rowan]

Oh, and apparently there is this as well:



As far as I know, Dominican Rep is very new to test rugby and has been thrashed in the few games it has played. Curacao has been around a bit longer and recorded mix success. So, I'll take the island of 170 K (about the same as Samoa) over the half-island of 11 million (3rd in the region, marginally behind Cuba and Haiti): Curaco to win by 20.