First All Blacks squad of 2019 is...

[cashead]

Hookers
Asafo Aumua (Hurricanes/Wellington)
Dane Coles (Hurricanes/Wellington)
Liam Coltman (Highlanders/Otago)
Codie Taylor (Crusaders/Canterbury)

Props
Owen Franks (Crusaders/Canterbury)
Nepo Laulala (Chiefs/Counties Manukau)
Joe Moody (Crusaders/Canterbury)
Atu Moli (Chiefs/Tasman)
Angus Ta’avao (Chiefs/Taranaki)
Karl Tu’inukuafe (Blues/North Harbour)
Ofa Tuungafasi (Blues/Auckland)

Locks
Brodie Retallick (Chiefs/Hawke’s Bay)
Scott Barrett (Crusaders/Taranaki)
Patrick Tuipulotu (Blues/Auckland)
Samuel Whitelock (Crusaders/Canterbury)

Utility Forward
Jackson Hemopo (Highlanders / Manawatu)

Loose Forwards
Sam Cane (Chiefs/Bay of Plenty)
Vaea Fifita (Hurricanes/Wellington)
Shannon Frizell (Highlanders/Tasman)
Luke Jacobson (Chiefs/Waikato)
Dalton Papali'i (Blues/Auckland)
Kieran Read (Crusaders/Counties Manukau, Captain)
Ardie Savea (Hurricanes/Wellington)
Matt Todd (Crusaders/Canterbury)

Halfbacks
TJ Perenara (Hurricanes/Wellington)
Aaron Smith (Highlanders/Manawatu)
Brad Weber (Chiefs/Hawke’s Bay)

First five–eighths
Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes/Taranaki)
Josh Ioane (Highlanders/Otago)
Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders/Canterbury)

Midfielders
Jack Goodhue (Crusaders/Northland)
Ngani Laumape (Hurricanes/Manawatu)
Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs/Waikato)
Sonny Bill Williams (Blues/Counties Manukau)

Outside Backs
George Bridge (Crusaders/Canterbury)
Rieko Ioane (Blues/Auckland)
Sevu Reece (Crusaders/Waikato)
Ben Smith (Highlanders/Otago)

Utility Backs
Braydon Ennor (Crusaders/Canterbury)
Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes/Taranaki)

[cashead]

Main talking points
1. 4 new faces in the squad - Jacobson, Ioane, Reece and Ennor, all of whom are form picks.
2. No Harris, Nonu, Naholo, Tahuriorangi, Luke Whitelock and Havili.
3. Squire ruled himself out, as he felt he was still undercooked.
4. The return of Brad Weber and Patrick Tuipulotu.

[Lizard]

Weber is a good pick. Really pleased to see Josh Ioane there, too. Pretty happy with that lot.

[cashead]

Weber had been on the verge of a recall for ages. Absolutely a deserved recall. He'd been one of the form NZ 9s in Super Rugby for a couple of seasons now.

[Banquo]

Crotty?

[cashead]

Crotty?

Crotty and Scott Barrett have minor injuries that'll keep them sidelined until mid-August.

[Banquo]

Crotty?

Crotty and Scott Barrett have minor injuries that'll keep them sidelined until mid-August.

ah ok, so both out of the SR final? That's a shame.

[morepork]

If Crotty breaks a nail, then SBW is the senior midfielder, himself increasingly prone to follicle injury. Crotty can muster the defence better than SBW, so the first choice 10 may need to step up. Has Laumape snuffed out opposition midfield attacks with Barrett at the helm effectively this year? Ditto Goodhue with Mo’unga? A Conrad Smith sized hole in leadership beckons. Ben From Accounts is another essential level head. Jordie is the reserve wicket keeper at the back I assume?

[Lizard]

Yep. Midfield without Crotty directing traffic is a concern. I’ve got no fuckin’ idea what the answer is but I don’t see SBW, for all his skills, as the answer to that particular question. It’s certainly an opportunity for someone to firmly establish themselves as the heir apparent.

Reading more about the Liam Squire situation, it seems to be either family or mental health related. Either way, it’s a total credit to Liam that he put dealing with those issues first rather than taking the field at less than 100%. I hope he gets another shot and has a long & successful test career.

[cashead]

And here's the Maori All Blacks squad for their series against Fiji (and also a chance for some of the fringe players to potentially play their way back into the squad).

Hookers
Ash Dixon (Ngati Tahinga, Highlanders/Hawke's Bay - Captain)
Nathan Harris (Ngati Apakura/Tainui, Chiefs/Waikato)

Props
Tyrel Lomax (Ngai Tuhoe/Muaupoko, Highlanders/Tasman)
Ben May (Ngati Maniapoto, Hurricanes/Hawke's Bay)
Marcel Renata (Ngati Whanaunga/Ngai Takoto, Blues/Auckland)
Ross Wright (Ngati Whatua/Ngati Porou, Blues/Northland)

Locks
Tom Franklin (Ngati Maniapoto, Highlanders/Otago)
Pari Pari Parkinson (Te Whanau a Apanui, Highlanders/Tasman)
Isaia Walker-Leawere (Ngati Porou, Hurricanes/Hawke's Bay)

Loose Forwards
Whetukamokamo Douglas (Ngati Porou/Ngati Whakaue, Crusaders/Canterbury)
Elliot Dixon (Ngapuhi, Highlanders/Southland)
Akira Ioane (Ngapuhi/Te Whanau a Apanui, Blues/Auckland)
Mitchell Karpik (Rongomaiwahine/Ngati Kahungunu, Chiefs/Bay of Plenty)
Reed Prinsep (Te Rarawa, Hurricanes/Canterbury)

Halfbacks
Bryn Hall (Ngati Ranginui, Crusaders/North Harbour)
Jonathan Ruru (Ngati Kahungunu/Rongomaiwahine, Blues/Auckland)
Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Ngati Pikiao, Chiefs/Taranaki)

Five-eighths
Otere Black (Ngai Tuhoe/Te Whanau a Apanui/Ngati Tuwharetoa, Blues/Manawatu)
Jackson Garden-Bachop (Ngati Awa, Hurricanes/Wellington)
Fletcher Smith (Ngati Kahungunu, Hurricanes/Waikato)

Midfielders
Alex Nankivell (Ngapuhi, Chiefs/Tasman)
Rob Thompson (Ngati Kahungunu/Nga Rauru, Highlanders/Manawatu)
Teihorangi Walden (Te Atiawa, Highlanders/Taranaki)

Back three
Jordan Hyland (Ngai Tahu, Highlanders/Northland)
Shaun Stevenson (Ngapuhi, Chiefs/North Harbour)
Sean Wainui (Ngai Tuhoe/Ngati Porou, Chiefs/Taranaki)

[cashead]

Yep. Midfield without Crotty directing traffic is a concern. I’ve got no fuckin’ idea what the answer is but I don’t see SBW, for all his skills, as the answer to that particular question. It’s certainly an opportunity for someone to firmly establish themselves as the heir apparent.

Taking into account form and longevity, I'd go with Anton Lienert-Brown as the long-term guy.

[cashead]

If Crotty breaks a nail, then SBW is the senior midfielder, himself increasingly prone to follicle injury. Crotty can muster the defence better than SBW, so the first choice 10 may need to step up. Has Laumape snuffed out opposition midfield attacks with Barrett at the helm effectively this year? Ditto Goodhue with Mo’unga? A Conrad Smith sized hole in leadership beckons. Ben From Accounts is another essential level head. Jordie is the reserve wicket keeper at the back I assume?

I would guess that Nonu would be the next port of call should Crotts or Sb-wuh get ruled out, based on skill-set and experience. Laumape is quite reminiscent of mid-2000s Nonu, in that he's a reliable line-breaker like Wesley Fofana (Fofana somehow teleports behind the opposition defence, Laumape just runs into them and drags them along for the ride).
Goodhue, and his glorious mullet, is probably going to be the long-term boy at 13.
Ben Smith is probably going to be the guy that'll be missed the most when he goes, although D-Mac was doing stuff that B-Smi was doing once he was dropped back to 15 at the Chiefs, effectively becoming a second play-maker out on the field.

My biggest concern still is the lack of the big-ass boot in the backline - something that the All Blacks were exposed as lacking in last year. Like, yeah, Jordie can do it and McKenzie was slamming them over from 50+ metres. Considering how well he's been playing, and his ability to bash them for a country mile, I'd have preferred someone like David Havili be included as well.

[morepork]

Interesting point re the boot. The AB version of the infernal box kick from 9?

[morepork]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

Thankfully for the rest of the world he doesn't appear to be going to the Crusaders any time soon.

[morepork]

You'd have to think they'd be tempted as Reid starts to wane.

[cashead]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

Thankfully for the rest of the world he doesn't appear to be going to the Crusaders any time soon.

At 8, long term? Whetu Douglas, or Gareth Evans probably. Or Shan Frizell. Luke Jacobson can also play there, and he's obviously just leap-frogged Ioane. I can also see Shag's successor possibly wanting Papali'i to branch out to 8 as well.

A-Dogg is really frustrating because he started out so well, but faded as the season went on.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Shag says Akira is fat and lazy. More or less.

Thankfully for the rest of the world he doesn't appear to be going to the Crusaders any time soon.

At 8, long term? Whetu Douglas, or Gareth Evans probably. Or Shan Frizell. Luke Jacobson can also play there, and he's obviously just leap-frogged Ioane. I can also see Shag's successor possibly wanting Papali'i to branch out to 8 as well.

A-Dogg is really frustrating because he started out so well, but faded as the season went on.

Hasn't he played the most minutes in the Super Comp this season or close to it? He's a talent who needs the right people pushing him.

[zer0]

Yeah he's played basically two full Blues campaigns, with an Auckland season sandwiched between them. That he's a bit tired is hardly surprising. Nevertheless, despite his tiredness, performance can hardly be used to overlook him.



Basically for every 10 minutes of attacking rugby played Ioane had 3.03 involvements, and 2.13 for every 10 minutes of defensive rugby played. Savea has had a great season and recorded values of 2.97 involvements per 10 minutes on attack, and 2.89 on defence. Whitelock is included as an guy who had recently always been preferred over Ioane (and to demonstrate my long held belief that he patently isn't a #8), while Vermeulen is included to provide a benchmark as a fantastic test class #8.

Despite his heavy workload over the last two years, Ioane is hardly out of place. Indeed, he's a standard deviation above in carries, metres made, and offensive involvements. He's not far off in terms of breaks, either. He also isn't a deviation below in any category. Though this is a small dataset, and I'm hoping to expand it at some point.

On that, I'll get round to including Jacobson at some point. It's just time consuming estimating the offensive/defensive minutes split.

I think once Hansen the Hutt has departed Ioane's chances of test selection will improve dramatically. And he's not going to find a better forwards coach in NZ than Coventry.

[morepork]

Whitelock should be playing for England with those three clean breaks. Young Surveyor is the most dynamic it would seem.

[zer0]

So, updated version. Includes the original four, as well as the #8 candidates in the current squad and the alternative long term suggestions in this thread.

Have included the high and low standard deviation breaks to make it more understandable. Didn't explain it before, but the ratio at the end is just an indicator of whether the player is more of an attacking or defensive option, based on their involvements per 10 minutes. 1 is a zen 50/50 balance, and scores >1 indicate a more attacking player, and <1 a more defensive player.



What do we get? Ioane and Savea are dominating the offensive side of things; large number of carries, making a tonne of metres, and breaking tackles left, right and centre. Defensively, Whitelock and Douglas are chomping through tackle after tackle, after tackle. With regards to Ioane specifically, he's a standard deviation above in terms of carries, metres made, breaks, and offensive involvements, and within a deviation for the rest. He compares well relative to the undeniable form/best #8 in Savea, with both being a deviation above in four metrics, and below in none. For that reason, I'd say that it indicates work-rate isn't really a plausible reason to overlook Ioane.

Given #8 is an offensive position, where a primary role is to provide go-forward, I'd personally much rather have someone like Ioane or Savea over someone like Whitelock or Douglas. Both of whom seem more suited to the blindside.

In that vein, from these numbers alone, I think we can also identify a few different types of players:

• Ideal #8's, providing good go-forward (Savea, Ioane, Vermeulen, Read)
• Super-subs, with few minutes but high involvements (Frizell)
• Out-of-position flankers, doing a lot of defensive work (Whitelock, Douglas, Jacobson, Evans)

Not quite sure where Ardron would fit purely on these numbers. Largely, I think, because he's being comfortably out-classed in terms of work-rate/involvements by each of the other players with large number of minutes (>1000).

May repeat this for different positions. Namely blindside, where I think Cane would perform well, and have long been a fan of moving him there to accommodate the likes of Todd or (more recently) Savea.

[morepork]

Nice work JAFA. Would be nice to see a repeated measure test of Ioane Vs. Savea, game by game for some discrete attacking data. Metres made maybe would show consistency over the long term. There isn't much to separate the two based on mean alone. Is Savea's weighted by one off bursts relative to Ioane? I'm liking your reasonable assumption of #8 being a go-forward cog in the wheel.

[J Dory]

Yes, thanks Zero, that's some quality analysis.

[cashead]

Scott Barrett predictably gets called in to replace Retallick.

Meanwhile the squad itself is shaved down to 34 for the Bledisloe tests. The big casualty is Karl Tuinukuafe, who will sit out the series.

Laulala and SBW will also be reporting to Counties Manukau for game time, and SBW will not be travelling to Perth either.

[Lizard]

No Josh Ioane. Seems shortsighted.