If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

But he knows damn well that we won’t intervene actively. So provided he can win without the war descending into another Chechnya then he know he can win. Have you seen the reaction of the world leaders? Many can’t bring themselves to condemn Russia and the European leaders brief flirtation with unity seems to be falling apart. It may hurt for a couple of years but long term he could be a winner. So I would call it a calculated risk rather than a completely unstable act.

How many losses did they suffer in the most recent Chechnya war? like 3800 or so? Well in the first two days of this war they've lost 2800.

3500 Russian losses now

4300

[Which Tyler]

Kyiv.jpg

[Son of Mathonwy]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

[Sandydragon]

Some interesting analysis in the Times which suggests:

Invasion timetable is very badly delayed due to strength of resistance.

Russians are very concerned at how the et underestimated fighting spirit and efficiency of Ukrainian armed forces

Tactically the Russians are being very naive, tanks assaulting urban areas without infantry support for example.

Russians are struggling to achieve air superiority despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft

Russian troops aren’t their highest quality ones.

Russians are likely to reduce the discretion with which they target Ukrainian troops. Expect to see sharp increase in civilian casualties as a result. Some discussion also over thermobaric devices or even bio/ chemical weapons being deployed. The latter would be a huge step although he probably figured that Assad got away with it so why can’t he?

To a last one is the most intriguing. Why would Putin hold back his best forces if a swift victory was what he wanted? Perhaps a complete misjudgement or is he holding them in reserve for something else?

[Puja]

Some interesting analysis in the Times which suggests:

Invasion timetable is very badly delayed due to strength of resistance.

Russians are very concerned at how the et underestimated fighting spirit and efficiency of Ukrainian armed forces

Tactically the Russians are being very naive, tanks assaulting urban areas without infantry support for example.

Russians are struggling to achieve air superiority despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft

Russian troops aren’t their highest quality ones.

Russians are likely to reduce the discretion with which they target Ukrainian troops. Expect to see sharp increase in civilian casualties as a result. Some discussion also over thermobaric devices or even bio/ chemical weapons being deployed. The latter would be a huge step although he probably figured that Assad got away with it so why can’t he?

To a last one is the most intriguing. Why would Putin hold back his best forces if a swift victory was what he wanted? Perhaps a complete misjudgement or is he holding them in reserve for something else?

I was reading analysis saying that the mistakes are because Putin's been insulated from reality by the number of people that are scared of him and that he's believed a lot of more optimistic assessments about Ukrainians laying down arms and welcoming their Russian liberators because it was what he wanted to hear.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Yeah, seen the same thing myself. Which leads us to an interesting question of how he reacts when reality bites harder and just how loyal to him personally his entourage is. The whole Yes Sir Mr President gets difficult when he is asking you to commit war crimes by using chemical weapons.

Apparently many Russian soldiers didn’t realise that what they were doing was anything other than an exercise and now really aren’t happy at being in a proper war. That would explain some of the desertions and the rather lack lustre performance.

[Stom]

Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

[Banquo]

Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

the process needs kick starting as the reality is it will take decades to happen, even with huge goodwill. Its a massive opportunity though- green- the way I see it.

[Sandydragon]

Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.

[Banquo]

Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.

I'd hope that most folks realise its not a binary situation by now.

[Sandydragon]

Interesting with European countries trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, will that stretch toward Saudi oil and Chinese products, too? If it does, we could see a huge change in the fight against climate change, one that was unthinkable before this.

Im not sure that too many governments will be keen to jump into bed with Chinese companies the way they were a decade ago. Green energy and nuclear would be the most obvious bets, although the latter takes decades to get from planning into reality. Green tech alone isnt the answer for right now and fracking is too sensitive. Saudi oil might be the stop-gap.

I'd hope that most folks realise its not a binary situation by now.

It will need a blended approach and I don’t think any one solution has the answer.

[Which Tyler]

[Mellsblue]

It was surely inevitable but here’s confirmation:

[Sandydragon]

Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.

Yep, don't see much justification for 2014 being the start date.

[Stom]

Don’t agree with her. It’s been going on for much longer.

The Cold War was won largely by the BBC and others influencing Eastern Europeans, and the careful use of information to shape opinions is nothing new.

Many of the arguments used by Putin were rehearsed by Hitler so not much new there either.

Arguably her reaction is one of shock having finally woken up to the true motives of Putin.

Yep, don't see much justification for 2014 being the start date.

I can, from a POV of simplicity. But I mentioned this elsewhere, that this just feels like a continuation on the path we have laid out for ourselves.

That we’ve been on a spiral toward the collapse of society and this is just another step toward that.

The question is whether the collapse will be positive or negative? Will the broken systems give way, see us grasp a new form of social capitalism and green energy, or will we double down, break apart into factions, and suffer for generations?

[Which Tyler]

TBF, I don't think she's talking about misinformation in war - that's been going on since the Egyptians!

As for this happening during the cold war - I'm not sure how influential Facebook, Twitter, Tictok etc were back then - given that she's explicitly talking about the Russian use of social media to spread misinformation and propaganda to undermine & influence Western democracies.

My instinct is that 2013 would be a better start point (though she does explain why she chose February 2014); and that she probably shouldn't have called it "the first great information war"

[paddy no 11]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

[paddy no 11]

The catholic and protestants discovering the printing press and issuing pamphlets with the pope/martin Luther in league with satan was an information war

[Puja]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

The push for green is the reason why Germany buys so much oil and gas from Russia? You're going to need to run through that one for me.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

They abandoned coal for "cleaner" LNG

[Sandydragon]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

Shortsightedness or corruption?

[Sandydragon]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

The push for green is the reason why Germany buys so much oil and gas from Russia? You're going to need to run through that one for me.

Puja

AS Paddy has said, plus a bit anti-nuclear desire which kicked that into touch. Probably more of a desire to push natural exploitation exploitation somewhere else rather than eradicate altogether at the moment.

[paddy no 11]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

Not sure I agree with this, it was the push for green away from Nuclear and fossil fuels that has played germany into the hands of the russians and the 100's of millions they collect every week from Germany/Europe that are funding the war. The short sightedness of green policy and possible nefarious actions of some german politicians arethe real issue (see gerhard schroeder)

Shortsightedness or corruption?

Look at Schroeder's position in Gazprom now! If you take to the internet there's people telling you who in germany is actually a KGB agent, I don't know but it is where it is. They issued a statement on Sunday evening saying they will go back to coal if it comes to it next winter and the war is still raging

[paddy no 11]

Not looking good on the Air front for Ukraine. It's going to get much worse from here