If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Son of Mathonwy]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

It would be interesting to know what consequences are being threatened here. But I'm happy this info is private!

[Sandydragon]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

It would be interesting to know what consequences are being threatened here. But I'm happy this info is private!

Yeah, why paint yourself into a corner? Everyone assumes that it will be like for like except there are lots of options open given that Ukraine isn't a NATO member. Hopefully 'do nothing' isnt on the short list.

[Zhivago]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

It would be interesting to know what consequences are being threatened here. But I'm happy this info is private!

It used to follow Kahn's theory of the 'escalation ladder', but I read that the current US thinking follows a theory called the 'escalation vortex' - which basically entails a cross-domain response, in order to gradate the escalation.

Obviously the US can't explain exactly what would happen because it is contingent on what exactly Russia does, and they also don't want Russia to factor in their response into their cost-benefit calculations. Ultimately if this conflict escalates into the nuclear domain, there are no winners, only losers.

[Sandydragon]

American options.

Nuclear response of their own. Very dangerous and likely to escalate. Plus Ukraine not a Nato member so not all Nato members will necessarily support that.

Kill Putin. Makes him a martyr and someone else equally as deranged takes over.

Additional sanctions. Likely but effective? What else is there to sanction and many nations ignore the sanctions anyway.

Limited military strike. Nato forces striking Russian targets. This is also very dangerous and might play into Putins hands. Nato attacking Russia is what he has been banging on about all along so to actually do it would be a big step.

Full on armament of Ukraine. No holes barred upgrading of Ukraine and training of its personnel. Send across brigades of heavy armour and artillery. Very possible.

Cyber. Could the US let rip with a massive cyber attack. Possible although Russia would respond in kind and we have plenty of vulnerabilities this side. But, what if Apple, Google and others just decided not to support Russia. Every iPhone in Russia was suddenly listed as stolen for example. Russia has a lot of reliance on apple and microsoft which could be exploited and really hurt. They would probably turn to Haiwei but not overnight and with some reluctance as the Chinese would add extras to the software and hardware for sure.

Ukraine entry to Nato. Would bring Ukraine under the nuclear umbrella and make further invasions dangerous for Russia. Cuts both ways though as then dangerous for a Nato partner to be invading territory considered to be Russian (even if the referenda are illegal).

DO nothing. Makes them look weak so hopefully not a serious option.

I'd put my money on an open cheque book and equipment list for Ukraine, with a bit of cyber thrown in. Plus some standing up of conventional and strategic forces. Obviously a lot depends on what Russia does. A small nuclear detonation on say Snake Island is one thing. A significant nuclear campaign against Ukraine that also includes Kiev is a completely different level. And especially if fallout affects Poland and other Nato countries.

[Which Tyler]

North of Lyman, Ridkodub and Nove look to have whilst Novomykhalivka and Zelena Dolyna are being contested. All access from the North of this pincer has been cut off already.
For the time being, it looks like the road East to Zarichne (or the smaller track to Yampil, which can then only lead to Zarichne) is the only route in or out for supplies / retreat.



I'm seeing unconfirmed reports that Drobysheve has been completely enveloped, with troops moving on to start hitting Stavky.
IF they get that, then moving along that route to Zarichne looks... an unpleasant prospect.

Equally, IF they can take and secure Stavky, then all of Lyman, Drobysheve, Derylove, Shandryholove, Serednje and Zelena Dolyna are all surrounded as well; with the only route out being that crap shoot from Lyman to Zarichne.

NB, this map hasn't been updated yet today

Lyman.jpg

[Son of Mathonwy]

American options.

Nuclear response of their own. Very dangerous and likely to escalate. Plus Ukraine not a Nato member so not all Nato members will necessarily support that.

Kill Putin. Makes him a martyr and someone else equally as deranged takes over.

Additional sanctions. Likely but effective? What else is there to sanction and many nations ignore the sanctions anyway.

Limited military strike. Nato forces striking Russian targets. This is also very dangerous and might play into Putins hands. Nato attacking Russia is what he has been banging on about all along so to actually do it would be a big step.

Full on armament of Ukraine. No holes barred upgrading of Ukraine and training of its personnel. Send across brigades of heavy armour and artillery. Very possible.

Cyber. Could the US let rip with a massive cyber attack. Possible although Russia would respond in kind and we have plenty of vulnerabilities this side. But, what if Apple, Google and others just decided not to support Russia. Every iPhone in Russia was suddenly listed as stolen for example. Russia has a lot of reliance on apple and microsoft which could be exploited and really hurt. They would probably turn to Haiwei but not overnight and with some reluctance as the Chinese would add extras to the software and hardware for sure.

Ukraine entry to Nato. Would bring Ukraine under the nuclear umbrella and make further invasions dangerous for Russia. Cuts both ways though as then dangerous for a Nato partner to be invading territory considered to be Russian (even if the referenda are illegal).

DO nothing. Makes them look weak so hopefully not a serious option.

I'd put my money on an open cheque book and equipment list for Ukraine, with a bit of cyber thrown in. Plus some standing up of conventional and strategic forces. Obviously a lot depends on what Russia does. A small nuclear detonation on say Snake Island is one thing. A significant nuclear campaign against Ukraine that also includes Kiev is a completely different level. And especially if fallout affects Poland and other Nato countries.

Large deployment of US troops to fight alongside Ukrainian troops is a serious option.

[Sandydragon]

American options.

Nuclear response of their own. Very dangerous and likely to escalate. Plus Ukraine not a Nato member so not all Nato members will necessarily support that.

Kill Putin. Makes him a martyr and someone else equally as deranged takes over.

Additional sanctions. Likely but effective? What else is there to sanction and many nations ignore the sanctions anyway.

Limited military strike. Nato forces striking Russian targets. This is also very dangerous and might play into Putins hands. Nato attacking Russia is what he has been banging on about all along so to actually do it would be a big step.

Full on armament of Ukraine. No holes barred upgrading of Ukraine and training of its personnel. Send across brigades of heavy armour and artillery. Very possible.

Cyber. Could the US let rip with a massive cyber attack. Possible although Russia would respond in kind and we have plenty of vulnerabilities this side. But, what if Apple, Google and others just decided not to support Russia. Every iPhone in Russia was suddenly listed as stolen for example. Russia has a lot of reliance on apple and microsoft which could be exploited and really hurt. They would probably turn to Haiwei but not overnight and with some reluctance as the Chinese would add extras to the software and hardware for sure.

Ukraine entry to Nato. Would bring Ukraine under the nuclear umbrella and make further invasions dangerous for Russia. Cuts both ways though as then dangerous for a Nato partner to be invading territory considered to be Russian (even if the referenda are illegal).

DO nothing. Makes them look weak so hopefully not a serious option.

I'd put my money on an open cheque book and equipment list for Ukraine, with a bit of cyber thrown in. Plus some standing up of conventional and strategic forces. Obviously a lot depends on what Russia does. A small nuclear detonation on say Snake Island is one thing. A significant nuclear campaign against Ukraine that also includes Kiev is a completely different level. And especially if fallout affects Poland and other Nato countries.

Large deployment of US troops to fight alongside Ukrainian troops is a serious option.

possibly, although if US troops were helping the offensive then it would be a big propaganda win for Russia. Much of what the US can do in response also gives some benefit, weirdly, to Russia given that we don't want to end up with US and Russia directly at war.

[Which Tyler]

NB, this map hasn't been updated yet today
Lyman.jpg

Looks like Ukraine have pushed out from their beachhead North of the SD at Siversk

Looks like Dibrova and Torske are under attack - some reports have them taken, some contested, some as "just" under attack.

That's the route East from Zarichne under severe threat.



If all true, and successful, that's a huge land grab over the last 2-3 days

ETA: Nope, sorry, there's still a small-looking road out North from Zarichne to the East of the Zherebets River

[Sandydragon]

NB, this map hasn't been updated yet today
Lyman.jpg

Looks like Ukraine have pushed out from their beachhead North of the SD at Siversk

Looks like Dibrova and Torske are under attack - some reports have them taken, some contested, some as "just" under attack.

That's the route East from Zarichne under severe threat.



If all true, and successful, that's a huge land grab over the last 2-3 days

ETA: Nope, sorry, there's still a small-looking road out North from Zarichne to the East of the Zherebets River

But, and take this from someone who spent a lot of time supporting military logistics in areas with poor terrain, moving the supplies needed for a modern heavy division up a small road is no fun at all. If the main supply routes are being taken/ make impassible then the Russians are going to feel the squeeze.

[Which Tyler]

A] I absolutely bow to your knowledge on all things warfare.
B] That route Northwards, East of the river, can surely only be the "run away" option, and only mentioned as before I'd noticed it, there was no escape route if the reports around Dibrova are accurate

[Sandydragon]

A] I absolutely bow to your knowledge on all things warfare.
B] That route Northwards, East of the river, can surely only be the "run away" option, and only mentioned as before I'd noticed it, there was no escape route if the reports around Dibrova are accurate

A. Nah mate, I just have fond memories of watching doggies trying to get big trucks up very small roads!

[Zhivago]

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36 ... 1cf64bd375

Bit of encirclement there...

especially as I read that Ukr has Novoselivka.

[Which Tyler]

That's even more out of date than the one I posted at lunchtime.

These have both been updated in the last hour; and both are reasonably cautious about changing them map without geoconfirmed evidence.

Lyman 1.jpg

Lyman 2.jpg

[cashead]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.



Here he is, showing his identification and mobilisation papers.

[Puja]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

[cashead]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Spamming shitloads of low-grade troops from a conveyor belt would also pretty much help jam up the meatgrinder they're throwing these poor fuckers into. Russian land war tactics have often relied on attrition, at least for the last 100-odd years, where the guys they're fighting get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was the case in the Russo-Japanese War, where they were holding their own against the Japanese army, while the Russian navy was getting its shit pushed in by the Japanese navy, and certainly the case 1942-onwards in WWII.

Putin has also painted himself into a corner, because this war has been a series of miscalculations, almost every step of the way. He expected, like when he went and fucked with the Chechens or the Georgians or Crimea, for the world to go "no don't" and not actually do anything. He expected the Ukrainians citizens to cheer for the Russians and happily join Russia. He expected his BOYZZZZZZZ to roll over the Ukrainian military with minimal fuss.

Instead, he's learned the hard way that enough countries are extremely tired of his bullshit. After screaming at his neighbours and dictating to them about not joining NATO, they've all gone and applied to join up, effectively telling him to suck the shit directly from their asses with a straw. Turkey and the US hate his fucking guts and are gleefully spamming the Ukrainian military with arms and training them to upskill in shit. Even the Tories have managed to stumble ass-backwards into being on the right side of history on this matter too. The Ukrainians collectively have told him to go fuck himself. NATO suddenly, for the first time in years seems actually relevant and very necessary.

If he doesn't win this, he's fucked, and he knows it.

And even if the Russians, by some miracle, manage to capture Kyiv, and take Ukraine, he's still fucked either way. Ukraine is HUGE and is now full of a population that fucking hates him, who have developed a taste for killing Russians and it turns out, are actually very good at it. Like, good luck holding on to that territory, you fucking dildo.

[Sandydragon]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Putin is taking a leaf out of Stalins book. So many soviet citizens were thrown against the Germans often without any weapons at all just to wear down the invaders and buy time. If you don’t have quality, then quantity can work pretty well.

But hard not to feel sorry for these poor bastards being sent to the slaughter whilst children of the influential can avoid the draft.

[Sandydragon]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Spamming shitloads of low-grade troops from a conveyor belt would also pretty much help jam up the meatgrinder they're throwing these poor fuckers into. Russian land war tactics have often relied on attrition, at least for the last 100-odd years, where the guys they're fighting get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was the case in the Russo-Japanese War, where they were holding their own against the Japanese army, while the Russian navy was getting its shit pushed in by the Japanese navy, and certainly the case 1942-onwards in WWII.

Putin has also painted himself into a corner, because this war has been a series of miscalculations, almost every step of the way. He expected, like when he went and fucked with the Chechens or the Georgians or Crimea, for the world to go "no don't" and not actually do anything. He expected the Ukrainians citizens to cheer for the Russians and happily join Russia. He expected his BOYZZZZZZZ to roll over the Ukrainian military with minimal fuss.

Instead, he's learned the hard way that enough countries are extremely tired of his bullshit. After screaming at his neighbours and dictating to them about not joining NATO, they've all gone and applied to join up, effectively telling him to suck the shit directly from their asses with a straw. Turkey and the US hate his fucking guts and are gleefully spamming the Ukrainian military with arms and training them to upskill in shit. Even the Tories have managed to stumble ass-backwards into being on the right side of history on this matter too. The Ukrainians collectively have told him to go fuck himself. NATO suddenly, for the first time in years seems actually relevant and very necessary.

If he doesn't win this, he's fucked, and he knows it.

And even if the Russians, by some miracle, manage to capture Kyiv, and take Ukraine, he's still fucked either way. Ukraine is HUGE and is now full of a population that fucking hates him, who have developed a taste for killing Russians and it turns out, are actually very good at it. Like, good luck holding on to that territory, you fucking dildo.

It’s a good point you make about nato relevance. That was being questioned not so long ago. Putin has made the alliance both relevant and has added to its membership.

[Which Tyler]

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

1. It's exactly the theory being proposed elsewhere.
2. You're assuming they're being given actual guns and real ammunition...

[Puja]

There's a video on twitter that purports to show a Russian POW who claims to have gotten his mobilisation papers on the 21st. All of 6 days, jesus fuck.

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Spamming shitloads of low-grade troops from a conveyor belt would also pretty much help jam up the meatgrinder they're throwing these poor fuckers into. Russian land war tactics have often relied on attrition, at least for the last 100-odd years, where the guys they're fighting get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was the case in the Russo-Japanese War, where they were holding their own against the Japanese army, while the Russian navy was getting its shit pushed in by the Japanese navy, and certainly the case 1942-onwards in WWII.

Surely that tactic has lost a lot of relevance since the mechanisation of warfare and combined arms doctrines? 10,000 noobs with guns won't do a huge amount to stop tanks or HIMARS, will they?

That's a genuine question - I'm no military expert beyond fiction and just enough knowledge to be dangerous to myself.

Puja

[Galfon]

Whodunnit ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... ous-leaks/

[cashead]

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Spamming shitloads of low-grade troops from a conveyor belt would also pretty much help jam up the meatgrinder they're throwing these poor fuckers into. Russian land war tactics have often relied on attrition, at least for the last 100-odd years, where the guys they're fighting get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was the case in the Russo-Japanese War, where they were holding their own against the Japanese army, while the Russian navy was getting its shit pushed in by the Japanese navy, and certainly the case 1942-onwards in WWII.

Surely that tactic has lost a lot of relevance since the mechanisation of warfare and combined arms doctrines? 10,000 noobs with guns won't do a huge amount to stop tanks or HIMARS, will they?

That's a genuine question - I'm no military expert beyond fiction and just enough knowledge to be dangerous to myself.

Puja

If there is one thing we've learned about the Russian military machine, it's that just about everything is either outdated or utter shit. Still, you need bodies on the ground to hold territory when you're in a war.

[Which Tyler]

Surely that tactic has lost a lot of relevance since the mechanisation of warfare and combined arms doctrines? 10,000 noobs with guns won't do a huge amount to stop tanks or HIMARS, will they?

That's a genuine question - I'm no military expert beyond fiction and just enough knowledge to be dangerous to myself.

B] Same here

A] Against shelling, missiles and heavy armour - then yeah; but infantry vs infantry, or even just surrendering after 3 days taking a pounding, and it'll tie up an awful lot of Ukrainian troops and resources in capturing them, processing, transporting, treating, housing and feeding them.
The theory doing the rounds is that that's the point, not so much that they'll do any attacking, but that they'll be someone in the way and prevent flanking manoeuvres, or at least alert higher up the chain that a flanking manoeuvre is happening. You never know, returning fire might stall the manoeuvre for a bit; and then they can go ahead and be captured, and be a drain on Ukrainian resources - probably more so than they'd be draining Russian resources in before capture.


Of course, the other (more realistic?) theory doing the rounds is that this is just an example of the dictator getting personally involved, shouting that he wants more men at the front, without really knowing anything about war; and underlings making sure that more men are sent to the front, even if there's nothing for them to do, and no equipment for them to use.
Simple incompetence of a non-military man giving military orders, that are then carried out regardless of idiocy - because that sort of thing has gone so well before.


ETA: https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... ember-27th

Update for September 25 through September 27th #ukrdailyupdate
Sep 27
Written By Andrew Perpetua

Here is my update for September 25th through September 27th.

If you want to view the map, you can go to map.ukrdailyupdate.com. This link will always direct you to the most current version of the map.

Includes

Between September 25th and 27th, Russia repeatedly attacked Petropavlivka (4) and suffered horrific casualties. Many hundreds died, and hundreds more were wounded. If you look at the casualty counts posted by Ukraine’s MOD, you will see over 500 killed listed each of the past few days. These suicide attacks explain those losses. Russia attacked without armored vehicles or heavy equipment, with little artillery support and little air support. The air support was hindered by Ukraine’s air defense, which shot down at least three jets and an attack helicopter immediately leading up to and during these Russian attacks.

[Sandydragon]

If that's true, I can only guess that Russia must be trying to overload Ukraine's POW handling capabilities, cause I can't see what the fuck other point there can be in sending someone that green to a front line. That is baffling decision-making, especially considering the internal political capital that this mobilisation is costing Putin.

Quite apart from anything else, I'd imagine it's a pointless loss of a firearm and ammunition that Ukraine will be just as happy to turn the other way.

Puja

Spamming shitloads of low-grade troops from a conveyor belt would also pretty much help jam up the meatgrinder they're throwing these poor fuckers into. Russian land war tactics have often relied on attrition, at least for the last 100-odd years, where the guys they're fighting get overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was the case in the Russo-Japanese War, where they were holding their own against the Japanese army, while the Russian navy was getting its shit pushed in by the Japanese navy, and certainly the case 1942-onwards in WWII.

Surely that tactic has lost a lot of relevance since the mechanisation of warfare and combined arms doctrines? 10,000 noobs with guns won't do a huge amount to stop tanks or HIMARS, will they?

That's a genuine question - I'm no military expert beyond fiction and just enough knowledge to be dangerous to myself.

Puja

It depends. It worked in Stalingrad where untrained and unarmed soldiers were just thrown at the Wehrmacht. It basically slowed down the advance and gave the Soviets time. It also helped that German supply lines were very long.

Running into well
Prepared positions is suicide. If the Russian morale
Is very good then they could cause some problems but I’ve seen little evidence of good morale. This feels like desperation but also it would have been better from a Russian perspective to spend the winter actually training these people and giving them a half chance in the spring.

[Sandydragon]

Surely that tactic has lost a lot of relevance since the mechanisation of warfare and combined arms doctrines? 10,000 noobs with guns won't do a huge amount to stop tanks or HIMARS, will they?

That's a genuine question - I'm no military expert beyond fiction and just enough knowledge to be dangerous to myself.

B] Same here

A] Against shelling, missiles and heavy armour - then yeah; but infantry vs infantry, or even just surrendering after 3 days taking a pounding, and it'll tie up an awful lot of Ukrainian troops and resources in capturing them, processing, transporting, treating, housing and feeding them.
The theory doing the rounds is that that's the point, not so much that they'll do any attacking, but that they'll be someone in the way and prevent flanking manoeuvres, or at least alert higher up the chain that a flanking manoeuvre is happening. You never know, returning fire might stall the manoeuvre for a bit; and then they can go ahead and be captured, and be a drain on Ukrainian resources - probably more so than they'd be draining Russian resources in before capture.


Of course, the other (more realistic?) theory doing the rounds is that this is just an example of the dictator getting personally involved, shouting that he wants more men at the front, without really knowing anything about war; and underlings making sure that more men are sent to the front, even if there's nothing for them to do, and no equipment for them to use.
Simple incompetence of a non-military man giving military orders, that are then carried out regardless of idiocy - because that sort of thing has gone so well before.


ETA: https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... ember-27th

Update for September 25 through September 27th #ukrdailyupdate
Sep 27
Written By Andrew Perpetua

Here is my update for September 25th through September 27th.

If you want to view the map, you can go to map.ukrdailyupdate.com. This link will always direct you to the most current version of the map.

Includes

Between September 25th and 27th, Russia repeatedly attacked Petropavlivka (4) and suffered horrific casualties. Many hundreds died, and hundreds more were wounded. If you look at the casualty counts posted by Ukraine’s MOD, you will see over 500 killed listed each of the past few days. These suicide attacks explain those losses. Russia attacked without armored vehicles or heavy equipment, with little artillery support and little air support. The air support was hindered by Ukraine’s air defense, which shot down at least three jets and an attack helicopter immediately leading up to and during these Russian attacks.

The problem with the POW theory is that it will destroy morale still further. But pouring in bodies to slow down an advance does have a logic and will provide a speed bump. It’s a bit like setting your house on fire to keep warm though compared to fixing the central heating.