I agree that Polanski is really changing things here and there's a huge amount of uncertainty over where that might end up. I'm just noting that (and it came as a surprise to me) even PR might not save us - there are potentially a lot of Reform+Tory voters (because most of the Reform voters are Tory voters from not long ago).Puja wrote: ↑Fri Oct 17, 2025 11:49 amYeah, but that poll isn't the be-all and end-all with the election 3 years away. Odd as it may sound, a fair chunk of the Reform voters are in play for Polanski - the 18% swing from Labour to Reform isn't because those people love fascism, but because they lent Starmer their votes on his electoral slogan of "CHANGE" and have been outraged by the fact that nothing has. Farage is preaching, "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things," and the politically homeless are willing to listen cause they're angry. They might not like everything he does, but they know they don't like the status quo.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 17, 2025 9:38 amThe way things stand PR wouldn't save Starmer anyway - the Tories would prop Farage up with a combined 49%, no doubt the DUP would help if required. And his paymasters wouldn't want it - PR makes it more expensive to bribe the government - FPTP means they just pay whoever's been gifted the majority by the system.Puja wrote: ↑Thu Oct 16, 2025 1:32 pm
And today there has been a poll showing Labour dropping below the Tories! Reform 32%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 15%, Greens 15%, Lib Dems 12%
It is only one poll and likely an outlier, but it is, frankly, incredible. Starmer might've lasted longer than the lettuce and not been anywhere near as disastrous for the economy, but his collapse of public support is surely unequalled in British political history.
Mind, given the way our political system works, his majority still gives him nigh unchecked power to do as he likes for the next 3 years. I wonder if he might soften his stance on electoral reform (small r) if the polls are still showing the same in a year's time - he's been resisting the very firmly expressed will of the party membership for that to be official policy, solely because the current system suits him very well, but I wonder if that might change if we're staring down the barrel of a Reform landslide under FPtP when PR could see a Lib/Lab/Green (poss Lib/Lab/Green/SNP) coalition.
Puja
It is staggering how Starmer drained the country of hope and enthusiasm from the moment he won the election. The graph in that Wikipedia page is incredible . . . and still he is utterly incapable of changing things. Eventually he will hit some kind of rock bottom, core, die-hard Labour voters, maybe that is 15%, maybe lower? Who knows when you piss everyone off and simp after the far right? It's like, Christ we'd better keep the bond markets happy , sprinkle a little xenophobia on top and fuck everyone else.
Now, some of those voters will get radicalised the longer they identify as Reform voters and react against the opprobrium of "the elites" telling them that they're wrong, but there'll also be a bunch who'll be interested in Polanski's version of "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things." They won't come back to Labour, no matter how hard Starmer simps for them, cause he doesn't understand that they don't actually want the racism and harsh immigration talk that he's been trying to woo them with, they want to feel like they're not getting shat on by the system and Starmer has missed his brief window to portray himself as a disruptor working for them.
The combined Conservative + UKIP/Reform vote has only once been above 36% three times in the last 30 years - 2015 with 49.4% (driven by the collapse of the Lib Dems after people voted for Change and got more of the same), 2017 with 44.1% and 2019 with 45.64% (42.3% and 43.6% for the Tories, both driven by personal animosity drummed up aganst Corbyn). You have to got back to 1959 to find an election where the right wing earns a majority of the votes and, in the same time period, 2015 is the only time where Labour + Liberals + SDP did not get a majority of the votes. The UK electorate is not inherently or naturally right-wing, but our ever more outdated electoral system, combined with the left rarely cooperating, has led to Conservative goverments the majority of the time.
I can easily see a future where Greens take 5% from Reform, Tories and Labour take 5% between them from the inevitable Reform scandal that will come, and we're left Reform 22%, Greens 20%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 17%, Lib Dems 12%, SNP 4%, and then you've got a narrow rainbow coalition available in PR.
Puja
But yes, there is a real potential appeal for working-class Reform voters who just want their own lives fixed for someone who promises to focus on that but without blaming it on foreigners.
(Note of caution: lest we forget how Nick Clegg was going to upset the two-party system in 2010 though - and that was in polling just weeks before the election.)