Snap General Election called - The new UK Politics thread

[Sandydragon]

There was a time before Thatcher, you know. Now everyone except the Greens and Corbyn/Sultana are thatcherites but didn't use to be that way.

Really? Wow, never realised this country existed before the 1970s!!!

But seriously, the Green sound like Corbyn, or indeed Foot, and that will play well with the disenfranchised and perpetual student union political types. It will scare the shit out of many voters in the general election.

Well, you sounded like you had forgotten that even the Tories built social housing and ran nationalised industries before Thatcher.

If it plays well with the disenfranchised then it should get a lot of votes in today's Britain. Reform scare the shit out of many voters too but that doesn't seem to disqualify them from government, god help us.

A radical lefty will scare voters more than Farage. As per a previous post, Corbyn has come the closest at any point n the history of the Labour left. Despite being up against a terrible PM and campaigner who shot herself in the foot and all his Momentum, he failed. And that’s with the legion of Labour safe seats, resources and local resources.

[Sandydragon]

Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls have the Greens at 15%, with Labour at 17%

Puja

Protest bounce. Over three years to the next election. Plenty of time for people to consider what they feel is important.

You should be more worried that the apparent popularity for the Greens new approach on the left fuels support for Farage from voters who feel their choice is a binary one.

I think you might be overestimating just how terrifying the British electorate finds ideas like, "Nationalise water companies," "tax billionaires and massive corporations", and "fund public services properly". Regardless on whether you agree with the efficacy of them in practice, those are some pretty populist campaign promises - I'm not worried about voters being driven into the arms of the fascists by "let's give money to the NHS".

I'd actually say three years to the next election makes thst poll more likely to occur in practice. You are correct that, right now, it's a protest bounce and, were there an election tomorrow, a lot of those polling Green would hold their nose and vote Labour. However, Polanski now has that most valuable of commodities in modern politics - attention. At the last election, the Greens couldn't buy a spot on Question Time, while Farage et al got on every other week - the Greens might've won 4 MPs, but that was by concerted local effort (and Starmer doing his absolute best to drive the left away, while also being on course for a landslide so people felt safe voting elsewhere), rather than because the populace at large knew or cared who they were.

If Polanski can keep this spurt of attention up and become a regularly talked about and quoted public figure, like Farage did, then he could very easily convert 'attention' into 'credibility as a genuine option for your vote'. If he can do that, then all bets are off.

Won't happen quickly, but it might have by 3 years' time.

Puja

The Greens have debated leaving NATO. All other parties will highlight they are dangerous in the current environment. I agree that Corbyn isn’t that bright but the Greens are focusing on a narrow constituency.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Really? Wow, never realised this country existed before the 1970s!!!

But seriously, the Green sound like Corbyn, or indeed Foot, and that will play well with the disenfranchised and perpetual student union political types. It will scare the shit out of many voters in the general election.

Well, you sounded like you had forgotten that even the Tories built social housing and ran nationalised industries before Thatcher.

If it plays well with the disenfranchised then it should get a lot of votes in today's Britain. Reform scare the shit out of many voters too but that doesn't seem to disqualify them from government, god help us.

A radical lefty will scare voters more than Farage. As per a previous post, Corbyn has come the closest at any point n the history of the Labour left. Despite being up against a terrible PM and campaigner who shot herself in the foot and all his Momentum, he failed. And that’s with the legion of Labour safe seats, resources and local resources.

Most of that is your opinion, which I disagree with (see earlier posts).

As for this, it's only true if history starts in 1979 or if you pretend that prior to that Labour wasn't 'left'.

[Puja]

The Greens appear to be backing the idea of leaving Nato. Student union politics.

Surely student union politics would be something like looking at a headline and forming an opinion on a subject without actually understanding any of the detail, because the headline and initial impression matches your pre-existing bias.

Polanski is in favour of leaving NATO, yes, on the basis that the US aren't a reliable partner and haven't been for a long time, so having our entire defence plan be based around an alliance that relies on them is foolishness. If you listen to what he actually says, it's not "let's leave NATO tomorrow; I'm sure it'll be fine, wheeee!" but instead "Let's form alternate regional defensive alliances and pacts to replace NATO, because it is getting steadily less fit for purpose."

But it is probably easier to just not think and assume he's an imbecile because you've already made up your mind that Greens are "student union politics".

Not sure if you saw this first time around.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Not quite sure where else to put this:
On the case of London's murders
The city's knife crime and murder rates are plunging
One of the most potent myths in British public life is that crime is spiralling out of control. Knife attacks, gangs, TikTok brawls: the imagery is vivid, the anecdotes endless. I’ve written before about how NHS data on patients treated for violent crime and knife attacks shows a multi-year low for the UK. But there is a monthly dataset that tells an extraordinary story: London murders. As the below chart shows, they now stand at the lowest since monthly data started being published in 2003. But if you look at how much higher it was back then suggests something extraordinary: London may now be experiencing the lowest number of murders in at least thirty, perhaps forty years. Perhaps longer. But how to prove it?
...
ARTICLE CONTINUES

[Which Tyler]

Greta Thunberg: “They kicked me every time the flag touched my face”

Beating, kicking, and threats of being gassed in cages.

Greta Thunberg and several others from the flotilla are now sharing details about their five days in Israeli captivity – and how Swedish Foreign Ministry staff left them without help.

[Puja]

Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls have the Greens at 15%, with Labour at 17%

Puja

This graph says Starmer and Badenoch have to go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Farage's FPTP dream: he's in the thirties all the others are in the teens.

And today there has been a poll showing Labour dropping below the Tories! Reform 32%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 15%, Greens 15%, Lib Dems 12%

It is only one poll and likely an outlier, but it is, frankly, incredible. Starmer might've lasted longer than the lettuce and not been anywhere near as disastrous for the economy, but his collapse of public support is surely unequalled in British political history.

Mind, given the way our political system works, his majority still gives him nigh unchecked power to do as he likes for the next 3 years. I wonder if he might soften his stance on electoral reform (small r) if the polls are still showing the same in a year's time - he's been resisting the very firmly expressed will of the party membership for that to be official policy, solely because the current system suits him very well, but I wonder if that might change if we're staring down the barrel of a Reform landslide under FPtP when PR could see a Lib/Lab/Green (poss Lib/Lab/Green/SNP) coalition.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls have the Greens at 15%, with Labour at 17%

Puja

This graph says Starmer and Badenoch have to go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Farage's FPTP dream: he's in the thirties all the others are in the teens.

And today there has been a poll showing Labour dropping below the Tories! Reform 32%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 15%, Greens 15%, Lib Dems 12%

It is only one poll and likely an outlier, but it is, frankly, incredible. Starmer might've lasted longer than the lettuce and not been anywhere near as disastrous for the economy, but his collapse of public support is surely unequalled in British political history.

Mind, given the way our political system works, his majority still gives him nigh unchecked power to do as he likes for the next 3 years. I wonder if he might soften his stance on electoral reform (small r) if the polls are still showing the same in a year's time - he's been resisting the very firmly expressed will of the party membership for that to be official policy, solely because the current system suits him very well, but I wonder if that might change if we're staring down the barrel of a Reform landslide under FPtP when PR could see a Lib/Lab/Green (poss Lib/Lab/Green/SNP) coalition.

Puja

The way things stand PR wouldn't save Starmer anyway - the Tories would prop Farage up with a combined 49%, no doubt the DUP would help if required. And his paymasters wouldn't want it - PR makes it more expensive to bribe the government - FPTP means they just pay whoever's been gifted the majority by the system.

It is staggering how Starmer drained the country of hope and enthusiasm from the moment he won the election. The graph in that Wikipedia page is incredible . . . and still he is utterly incapable of changing things. Eventually he will hit some kind of rock bottom, core, die-hard Labour voters, maybe that is 15%, maybe lower? Who knows when you piss everyone off and simp after the far right? It's like, Christ we'd better keep the bond markets happy , sprinkle a little xenophobia on top and fuck everyone else.

[Puja]

This graph says Starmer and Badenoch have to go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Farage's FPTP dream: he's in the thirties all the others are in the teens.

And today there has been a poll showing Labour dropping below the Tories! Reform 32%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 15%, Greens 15%, Lib Dems 12%

It is only one poll and likely an outlier, but it is, frankly, incredible. Starmer might've lasted longer than the lettuce and not been anywhere near as disastrous for the economy, but his collapse of public support is surely unequalled in British political history.

Mind, given the way our political system works, his majority still gives him nigh unchecked power to do as he likes for the next 3 years. I wonder if he might soften his stance on electoral reform (small r) if the polls are still showing the same in a year's time - he's been resisting the very firmly expressed will of the party membership for that to be official policy, solely because the current system suits him very well, but I wonder if that might change if we're staring down the barrel of a Reform landslide under FPtP when PR could see a Lib/Lab/Green (poss Lib/Lab/Green/SNP) coalition.

Puja

The way things stand PR wouldn't save Starmer anyway - the Tories would prop Farage up with a combined 49%, no doubt the DUP would help if required. And his paymasters wouldn't want it - PR makes it more expensive to bribe the government - FPTP means they just pay whoever's been gifted the majority by the system.

It is staggering how Starmer drained the country of hope and enthusiasm from the moment he won the election. The graph in that Wikipedia page is incredible . . . and still he is utterly incapable of changing things. Eventually he will hit some kind of rock bottom, core, die-hard Labour voters, maybe that is 15%, maybe lower? Who knows when you piss everyone off and simp after the far right? It's like, Christ we'd better keep the bond markets happy , sprinkle a little xenophobia on top and fuck everyone else.

Yeah, but that poll isn't the be-all and end-all with the election 3 years away. Odd as it may sound, a fair chunk of the Reform voters are in play for Polanski - the 18% swing from Labour to Reform isn't because those people love fascism, but because they lent Starmer their votes on his electoral slogan of "CHANGE" and have been outraged by the fact that nothing has. Farage is preaching, "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things," and the politically homeless are willing to listen cause they're angry. They might not like everything he does, but they know they don't like the status quo.

Now, some of those voters will get radicalised the longer they identify as Reform voters and react against the opprobrium of "the elites" telling them that they're wrong, but there'll also be a bunch who'll be interested in Polanski's version of "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things." They won't come back to Labour, no matter how hard Starmer simps for them, cause he doesn't understand that they don't actually want the racism and harsh immigration talk that he's been trying to woo them with, they want to feel like they're not getting shat on by the system and Starmer has missed his brief window to portray himself as a disruptor working for them.

The combined Conservative + UKIP/Reform vote has only once been above 36% three times in the last 30 years - 2015 with 49.4% (driven by the collapse of the Lib Dems after people voted for Change and got more of the same), 2017 with 44.1% and 2019 with 45.64% (42.3% and 43.6% for the Tories, both driven by personal animosity drummed up aganst Corbyn). You have to got back to 1959 to find an election where the right wing earns a majority of the votes and, in the same time period, 2015 is the only time where Labour + Liberals + SDP did not get a majority of the votes. The UK electorate is not inherently or naturally right-wing, but our ever more outdated electoral system, combined with the left rarely cooperating, has led to Conservative goverments the majority of the time.

I can easily see a future where Greens take 5% from Reform, Tories and Labour take 5% between them from the inevitable Reform scandal that will come, and we're left Reform 22%, Greens 20%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 17%, Lib Dems 12%, SNP 4%, and then you've got a narrow rainbow coalition available in PR.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Laughably disingenuous Israel-serving bullshit from Nandy:

It has a real-world impact on a community who already feel excluded and afraid. It is therefore completely legitimate to support the independence of the police to conduct that risk assessment and to question the conclusion that follows when it excludes the people at the heart of that risk.

So telling the police they're wrong and doing your best to reverse their decision = supporting their independence?

This is how far Labour's head is up the arse of the far right. They really would have wanted a trail of destruction and violence across Birmingham, probably from London too as some would have arrived at airports there, and the divisive aftereffects on the country? I know why Farage and Yaxley-Lennon want this but Labour??

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... a-park-ban

[Son of Mathonwy]

And today there has been a poll showing Labour dropping below the Tories! Reform 32%, Conservatives 17%, Labour 15%, Greens 15%, Lib Dems 12%

It is only one poll and likely an outlier, but it is, frankly, incredible. Starmer might've lasted longer than the lettuce and not been anywhere near as disastrous for the economy, but his collapse of public support is surely unequalled in British political history.

Mind, given the way our political system works, his majority still gives him nigh unchecked power to do as he likes for the next 3 years. I wonder if he might soften his stance on electoral reform (small r) if the polls are still showing the same in a year's time - he's been resisting the very firmly expressed will of the party membership for that to be official policy, solely because the current system suits him very well, but I wonder if that might change if we're staring down the barrel of a Reform landslide under FPtP when PR could see a Lib/Lab/Green (poss Lib/Lab/Green/SNP) coalition.

Puja

The way things stand PR wouldn't save Starmer anyway - the Tories would prop Farage up with a combined 49%, no doubt the DUP would help if required. And his paymasters wouldn't want it - PR makes it more expensive to bribe the government - FPTP means they just pay whoever's been gifted the majority by the system.

It is staggering how Starmer drained the country of hope and enthusiasm from the moment he won the election. The graph in that Wikipedia page is incredible . . . and still he is utterly incapable of changing things. Eventually he will hit some kind of rock bottom, core, die-hard Labour voters, maybe that is 15%, maybe lower? Who knows when you piss everyone off and simp after the far right? It's like, Christ we'd better keep the bond markets happy , sprinkle a little xenophobia on top and fuck everyone else.

Yeah, but that poll isn't the be-all and end-all with the election 3 years away. Odd as it may sound, a fair chunk of the Reform voters are in play for Polanski - the 18% swing from Labour to Reform isn't because those people love fascism, but because they lent Starmer their votes on his electoral slogan of "CHANGE" and have been outraged by the fact that nothing has. Farage is preaching, "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things," and the politically homeless are willing to listen cause they're angry. They might not like everything he does, but they know they don't like the status quo.

Now, some of those voters will get radicalised the longer they identify as Reform voters and react against the opprobrium of "the elites" telling them that they're wrong, but there'll also be a bunch who'll be interested in Polanski's version of "Come with me and I'll teach them a lesson - I'll really change things." They won't come back to Labour, no matter how hard Starmer simps for them, cause he doesn't understand that they don't actually want the racism and harsh immigration talk that he's been trying to woo them with, they want to feel like they're not getting shat on by the system and Starmer has missed his brief window to portray himself as a disruptor working for them.

The combined Conservative + UKIP/Reform vote has only once been above 36% three times in the last 30 years - 2015 with 49.4% (driven by the collapse of the Lib Dems after people voted for Change and got more of the same), 2017 with 44.1% and 2019 with 45.64% (42.3% and 43.6% for the Tories, both driven by personal animosity drummed up aganst Corbyn). You have to got back to 1959 to find an election where the right wing earns a majority of the votes and, in the same time period, 2015 is the only time where Labour + Liberals + SDP did not get a majority of the votes. The UK electorate is not inherently or naturally right-wing, but our ever more outdated electoral system, combined with the left rarely cooperating, has led to Conservative goverments the majority of the time.

I can easily see a future where Greens take 5% from Reform, Tories and Labour take 5% between them from the inevitable Reform scandal that will come, and we're left Reform 22%, Greens 20%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 17%, Lib Dems 12%, SNP 4%, and then you've got a narrow rainbow coalition available in PR.

Puja

I agree that Polanski is really changing things here and there's a huge amount of uncertainty over where that might end up. I'm just noting that (and it came as a surprise to me) even PR might not save us - there are potentially a lot of Reform+Tory voters (because most of the Reform voters are Tory voters from not long ago).

But yes, there is a real potential appeal for working-class Reform voters who just want their own lives fixed for someone who promises to focus on that but without blaming it on foreigners.

(Note of caution: lest we forget how Nick Clegg was going to upset the two-party system in 2010 though - and that was in polling just weeks before the election.)

[Danno]

This is hilarious

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-debate

What the fuck did you expect, man searching for the leopards that ate your face?

[Puja]

This is hilarious

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-debate

What the fuck did you expect, man searching for the leopards that ate your face?

I don't understand what on earth attracted him to Reform in the first place - he describes himself as being for the positive aspects of migration, background in social work and youth work (so presumably in favour of public services), anti-racism, for reparations for Afro-Caribbean communities, "coming from a very strong, Christian, love thy neighbour sort of perspective". What on earth did he ever think linked his beliefs and theirs?

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is hilarious

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-debate

What the fuck did you expect, man searching for the leopards that ate your face?

I don't understand what on earth attracted him to Reform in the first place - he describes himself as being for the positive aspects of migration, background in social work and youth work (so presumably in favour of public services), anti-racism, for reparations for Afro-Caribbean communities, "coming from a very strong, Christian, love thy neighbour sort of perspective". What on earth did he ever think linked his beliefs and theirs?

Puja

Presumably Brexit and the socially conservative Christian side of things? Clearly not a very observant guy - seems completely unaware of what Farage has been saying for the whole of his career.

Strange mix of views - not sure he'd like any of the parties.

[Danno]

It's either supreme ignorance or (more likely)turning the Nelsonian blind eye until they started saying things out loud too often.

Either way I hope he feels burned enough to stay out of politics in the future.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Good news from Wales - Plaid upset the pollsters to comfortably beat Reform in Caerphilly. Big turnout, collapse in Labour and Tory vote:

Lindsay Whittle (PC) 15,961 (47.38%, +18.98%)
Llyr Powell (Reform) 12,113 (35.96%, +34.25%)
Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.02%, -34.94%)
Gareth Potter (C) 690 (2.05%, -15.29%)
Gareth Hughes (Green) 516 (1.53%)
Steve Aicheler (LD) 497 (1.48%, -1.25%)
Anthony Cook (Gwlad) 117 (0.35%)
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.23%)
PC maj 3,848 (11.42%)
26.96% swing Lab to PC
Electorate 66,895; Turnout 33,686 (50.36%, +6.52%)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ion-result

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jesus. Last night I accidentally saw 10 seconds of Question Time, and great news, the BBC have generated another excuse to get Nadine Dorres on it FFS. I know she's a political clown, carried in the wake of that uber-clown Johnson, but please please BBC have mercy on us, I thought we had cleansed public life of this one noxious moron at least.

[Puja]

Jesus. Last night I accidentally saw 10 seconds of Question Time, and great news, the BBC have generated another excuse to get Nadine Dorres on it FFS. I know she's a political clown, carried in the wake of that uber-clown Johnson, but please please BBC have mercy on us, I thought we had cleansed public life of this one noxious moron at least.

I'm actually genuinely surprised that she hasn't joined Reform yet. Seems like exactly the kind of useless idiot they attract as MP candidates.

Good news from Wales - Plaid upset the pollsters to comfortably beat Reform in Caerphilly. Big turnout, collapse in Labour and Tory vote:

Was very pleased to wake up to that news. Obviously dangerous to extrapolate from one by-election, but it feels like there's a strong "Jesus fuck, not Reform" voting base out there who are motivated to come out for the polls.

Puja

[Donny osmond]

Voting in vacuous populist blame-everyone-else bullshitting nationalists is not good news. Even if they arent reform, theyre still nationalists.

[Puja]

Voting in vacuous populist blame-everyone-else bullshitting nationalists is not good news. Even if they arent reform, theyre still nationalists.

Plaid aren't super-strong nationalists though. They're more of a centre-left party who are also very Welsh-flavoured, rather than an Immediate Independence type.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jesus. Last night I accidentally saw 10 seconds of Question Time, and great news, the BBC have generated another excuse to get Nadine Dorres on it FFS. I know she's a political clown, carried in the wake of that uber-clown Johnson, but please please BBC have mercy on us, I thought we had cleansed public life of this one noxious moron at least.

I'm actually genuinely surprised that she hasn't joined Reform yet. Seems like exactly the kind of useless idiot they attract as MP candidates.

Good news from Wales - Plaid upset the pollsters to comfortably beat Reform in Caerphilly. Big turnout, collapse in Labour and Tory vote:

Was very pleased to wake up to that news. Obviously dangerous to extrapolate from one by-election, but it feels like there's a strong "Jesus fuck, not Reform" voting base out there who are motivated to come out for the polls.

Puja

Dorres has joined Reform (can't blame you for not following her career though ).

Yeah, not going to extrapolate but anytime Reform gets a setback and the press and pollsters get that lesson is a good thing.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Voting in vacuous populist blame-everyone-else bullshitting nationalists is not good news. Even if they arent reform, theyre still nationalists.

Plaid aren't super-strong nationalists though. They're more of a centre-left party who are also very Welsh-flavoured, rather than an Immediate Independence type.

Puja

When deciding between two parties I like to use the following rule of thumb:

Don't vote for the fascists.

[Puja]

Jesus. Last night I accidentally saw 10 seconds of Question Time, and great news, the BBC have generated another excuse to get Nadine Dorres on it FFS. I know she's a political clown, carried in the wake of that uber-clown Johnson, but please please BBC have mercy on us, I thought we had cleansed public life of this one noxious moron at least.

I'm actually genuinely surprised that she hasn't joined Reform yet. Seems like exactly the kind of useless idiot they attract as MP candidates.

Good news from Wales - Plaid upset the pollsters to comfortably beat Reform in Caerphilly. Big turnout, collapse in Labour and Tory vote:

Was very pleased to wake up to that news. Obviously dangerous to extrapolate from one by-election, but it feels like there's a strong "Jesus fuck, not Reform" voting base out there who are motivated to come out for the polls.

Puja

Dorres has joined Reform (can't blame you for not following her career though ).

Yeah, not going to extrapolate but anytime Reform gets a setback and the press and pollsters get that lesson is a good thing.

I just googled to find out when that happened and came across this BBC article which made me laugh. From the Tory party's only commentary on her leaving being, "We wish Nadine well," to the wonderfully diplomatic, "When asked if Dorries would be in any future Reform UK cabinet Yusuf said that would be 'a decision for Nigel and I think he's some way from making that decision'," to the Lib Dems going full open mockery of, "We don't know who to feel more sorry for, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage."

Hard to believe she used to be an actual figure of political relevance and even harder to believe that she still thinks she is one.

Puja

[Donny osmond]

Voting in vacuous populist blame-everyone-else bullshitting nationalists is not good news. Even if they arent reform, theyre still nationalists.

Plaid aren't super-strong nationalists though. They're more of a centre-left party who are also very Welsh-flavoured, rather than an Immediate Independence type.

Puja

I hope youre right, for Wales' sake. Scotlands in the middle of a 20 year experiment in finger burning with nationalism, largely based on a similar theory of "oh but this type of nationalism is better". It isnt.

[Puja]

Voting in vacuous populist blame-everyone-else bullshitting nationalists is not good news. Even if they arent reform, theyre still nationalists.

Plaid aren't super-strong nationalists though. They're more of a centre-left party who are also very Welsh-flavoured, rather than an Immediate Independence type.

Puja

I hope youre right, for Wales' sake. Scotlands in the middle of a 20 year experiment in finger burning with nationalism, largely based on a similar theory of "oh but this type of nationalism is better". It isnt.

In fairness, Scotland's dabbling with nationalism, despite some fairly solid down-sides, has also seen them get protected from university tuition fees, one child benefit cap, prescription charges, and austerity on Sure Start/Best Start grants. Frankly, I'd much rather have had the SNP in charge of Britain for 14 years (and I am aware of aaaaaaalll of the many bad points of them - even so) than the Conservatives.

Even in a worst case scenario of Plaid turning out to be nutters, I'd still prefer the lesser evil of ineffectual Welsh nationalism to the British/England nationalism of the outright fascists. It would take a very big turn in Plaid's politics for me not to see them beating Reform as an absolute win.

Puja