Snap General Election called - The new UK Politics thread

[Donny osmond]

Currently agree on Plaid v Reform but a) thats a spectacularly low bar and b) i wonder if we'll think the same if and when Plaid have been in charge for a few years

Solid disagree on SNP v anyone even the Tories, they are beyond awful, as corrupt as it gets and with a massive dollop of sanctimonious hypocrisy spread over the top

[Sandydragon]

I'm actually genuinely surprised that she hasn't joined Reform yet. Seems like exactly the kind of useless idiot they attract as MP candidates.



Was very pleased to wake up to that news. Obviously dangerous to extrapolate from one by-election, but it feels like there's a strong "Jesus fuck, not Reform" voting base out there who are motivated to come out for the polls.

Puja

Dorres has joined Reform (can't blame you for not following her career though ).

Yeah, not going to extrapolate but anytime Reform gets a setback and the press and pollsters get that lesson is a good thing.

I just googled to find out when that happened and came across this BBC article which made me laugh. From the Tory party's only commentary on her leaving being, "We wish Nadine well," to the wonderfully diplomatic, "When asked if Dorries would be in any future Reform UK cabinet Yusuf said that would be 'a decision for Nigel and I think he's some way from making that decision'," to the Lib Dems going full open mockery of, "We don't know who to feel more sorry for, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage."

Hard to believe she used to be an actual figure of political relevance and even harder to believe that she still thinks she is one.

Puja

She used to be my MP. Fuxking disaster.

[Danno]

Dorres has joined Reform (can't blame you for not following her career though ).

Yeah, not going to extrapolate but anytime Reform gets a setback and the press and pollsters get that lesson is a good thing.

I just googled to find out when that happened and came across this BBC article which made me laugh. From the Tory party's only commentary on her leaving being, "We wish Nadine well," to the wonderfully diplomatic, "When asked if Dorries would be in any future Reform UK cabinet Yusuf said that would be 'a decision for Nigel and I think he's some way from making that decision'," to the Lib Dems going full open mockery of, "We don't know who to feel more sorry for, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage."

Hard to believe she used to be an actual figure of political relevance and even harder to believe that she still thinks she is one.

Puja

She used to be my MP. Fuxking disaster.

She's the most incredible example of failing upwards since Chris Grayling

[Sandydragon]

I just googled to find out when that happened and came across this BBC article which made me laugh. From the Tory party's only commentary on her leaving being, "We wish Nadine well," to the wonderfully diplomatic, "When asked if Dorries would be in any future Reform UK cabinet Yusuf said that would be 'a decision for Nigel and I think he's some way from making that decision'," to the Lib Dems going full open mockery of, "We don't know who to feel more sorry for, Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage."

Hard to believe she used to be an actual figure of political relevance and even harder to believe that she still thinks she is one.

Puja

She used to be my MP. Fuxking disaster.

She's the most incredible example of failing upwards since Chris Grayling

Unofrtunately, Boris had the policy of rewarding loyalty not talent (I suppose he wasnt alone in that).

But frankly, the more of the hard right band who join Reform the better. Hopefully the One Nation Tories can drag the party back to the centre ground.

[Danno]

She used to be my MP. Fuxking disaster.

She's the most incredible example of failing upwards since Chris Grayling

Unofrtunately, Boris had the policy of rewarding loyalty not talent (I suppose he wasnt alone in that).

But frankly, the more of the hard right band who join Reform the better. Hopefully the One Nation Tories can drag the party back to the centre ground.

Are there any left after Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson's purge?

[Sandydragon]

She's the most incredible example of failing upwards since Chris Grayling

Unofrtunately, Boris had the policy of rewarding loyalty not talent (I suppose he wasnt alone in that).

But frankly, the more of the hard right band who join Reform the better. Hopefully the One Nation Tories can drag the party back to the centre ground.

Are there any left after Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson's purge?

Not many. I sense that it will take a lengthy period of Reform outstrigging the Conservatives as the party of the right before they realise that trying to be more extreme than Farage is a fools game.

[Danno]

Unofrtunately, Boris had the policy of rewarding loyalty not talent (I suppose he wasnt alone in that).

But frankly, the more of the hard right band who join Reform the better. Hopefully the One Nation Tories can drag the party back to the centre ground.

Are there any left after Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson's purge?

Not many. I sense that it will take a lengthy period of Reform outstrigging the Conservatives as the party of the right before they realise that trying to be more extreme than Farage is a fools game.

Can only hope that Labour realise that a little sooner*

*(they won't)

[Which Tyler]

Dorres has joined Reform (can't blame you for not following her career though ).

We'll, that's one way of guarteeing Question Time appearances

[Sandydragon]

Are there any left after Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson's purge?

Not many. I sense that it will take a lengthy period of Reform outstrigging the Conservatives as the party of the right before they realise that trying to be more extreme than Farage is a fools game.

Can only hope that Labour realise that a little sooner*

*(they won't)

There’s no way Starmer will hold together the coalition he built at the last election if he is seen to pivot off to the left or to chase Farage.

Starmer is however tolerated by his party and I doubt he will last four more years. A leftward shift will make Farages
Job easier, depending on whether there is widespread anti Farage tactical voting as in Caerphilly recently and if the conservatives decide to ally right or centre.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Not many. I sense that it will take a lengthy period of Reform outstrigging the Conservatives as the party of the right before they realise that trying to be more extreme than Farage is a fools game.

Can only hope that Labour realise that a little sooner*

*(they won't)

There’s no way Starmer will hold together the coalition he built at the last election if he is seen to pivot off to the left or to chase Farage.

Starmer is however tolerated by his party and I doubt he will last four more years. A leftward shift will make Farages
Job easier, depending on whether there is widespread anti Farage tactical voting as in Caerphilly recently and if the conservatives decide to ally right or centre.

Starmer has already destroyed the 'Tories out' coalition that fell into his lap at the last election. I'm not sure what you're advising him to do here. He is already chasing Farage. Are you saying don't go left or right from where you are? So keep doing the same thing??

What's making Farage's job easier are: Starmer . . .
1) aping Reform policies and communications,
2) continuing to run the country in the same way the Tories did for the previous 14 years despite promising 'change',
3) being so right-wing that he allowed popular new political forces to form to the left of Labour,
4) being an appalling charmless and tin-eared politician.

[Sandydragon]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

[Puja]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Developing a working asylum and immigration system would be tacking left from Starmer's current position, which is in some ways more hostile than May's Hostile Environment policies. That's the problem with chasing the centre from the left - if you're supposed to be pulling the Overton window one way, but you give it up to find the centre, then the "centre" will keep moving away from you now matter how far right you go.

Puja

[morepork]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Don't tack left....sweet Jesus this is a tired and pliant middle ground.

[Stom]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

As we’re starting to see elsewhere in the world, though, left of center policies are by far more popular among nearly every demographic.

I don’t think you’re up to date with politics, here. The most success had in recent times fighting the far right IS by ignoring the dog whistle, not listening to it more! You fight on economics, you fight on quality of life and standard of living.

Labour have scored it up and unless they have a change in leadership, they will lose the next election. Just will they lose out by enough to give reform an outright majority.

[Sandydragon]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

As we’re starting to see elsewhere in the world, though, left of center policies are by far more popular among nearly every demographic.

I don’t think you’re up to date with politics, here. The most success had in recent times fighting the far right IS by ignoring the dog whistle, not listening to it more! You fight on economics, you fight on quality of life and standard of living.

Labour have scored it up and unless they have a change in leadership, they will lose the next election. Just will they lose out by enough to give reform an outright majority.

This remains a country where that Overton window is slightly right of centre in many areas. Tacking to the left will just see Labour chasing the greens who will be able to ape reform and be more extreme.

The idea of paying higher taxes is not as popular as you might think it is. Likewise, managing our immigration system is a high priority for most voters. Furthermore any sensible government needs to balance urgent priorities such as defence with a huge welfare bill.

[Sandydragon]

In terms of taxation surveys show that the British seem happy for other people to at that tax, noting that the top earner already pay a very large percentage of the tax bill.

Measures like land tax etc will raise some money but not enough given existing debts. Taxing business is apparently popular as well, until people lose their jobs.

Basically people want more but don’t want to pay any more themselves for it. Not sure how that support for left of centre policies will hold up when that reality hits home.

[Stom]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

As we’re starting to see elsewhere in the world, though, left of center policies are by far more popular among nearly every demographic.

I don’t think you’re up to date with politics, here. The most success had in recent times fighting the far right IS by ignoring the dog whistle, not listening to it more! You fight on economics, you fight on quality of life and standard of living.

Labour have scored it up and unless they have a change in leadership, they will lose the next election. Just will they lose out by enough to give reform an outright majority.

This remains a country where that Overton window is slightly right of centre in many areas. Tacking to the left will just see Labour chasing the greens who will be able to ape reform and be more extreme.

The idea of paying higher taxes is not as popular as you might think it is. Likewise, managing our immigration system is a high priority for most voters. Furthermore any sensible government needs to balance urgent priorities such as defence with a huge welfare bill.

I don’t think paying higher taxes should be more popular, and the simple fact that it is seen as the only thing about “the left” is testament to the terrible job Labour have done on pr and the press.

The Overton window is not right of centre in the UK. That would be equivalent to the views of the Tory party pre-Thatcher.

The Overton window is extreme right. Economically, it’s so far to the right so as to be obscene.

Taxes need to be realigned, not raised, per se, but any attempt is shot down by a press that has massive vested interests, and any nuance is lost in a terrible communications strategy.

The only time a party has proposed a shift was Corbyn, who won huge popular support despite the fact he was an appalling communicator and the press were totally and completely against him.

Look at the green surge in the UK, the popularity of Zohran Mamdani among conservatives in New York, the rise of Peter Magyar in Hungary, and you can see that people are starting to ignore the msm view and turn out for alternative options.

And just to reiterate, the Overton window is far right, not right of center. Explain to me why you think it is moderate?

[Son of Mathonwy]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Which policies of Blair's New Labour would you like to see emulated by Starmer's Labour?

Continuing to frame immigration as a problem will continue to hand votes to Farage, no matter what policy you propose. You will be saying Farage is right, keep immigration as the big issue and voters will go to Reform because everyone knows that they will have the more radical policy in that area.

The only way to take oxygen from Farage is to change the message completely - immigrants are not the cause of declining living standards, getting rid of them will not fix your lives any more than Brexit did when that was the miracle cure sold by Farage. There is another cause, that is inequality, and there's a different cure for that. Unfortunately Starmer is a rich man paid for by even richer men and will never make that the message.

[Sandydragon]

As we’re starting to see elsewhere in the world, though, left of center policies are by far more popular among nearly every demographic.

I don’t think you’re up to date with politics, here. The most success had in recent times fighting the far right IS by ignoring the dog whistle, not listening to it more! You fight on economics, you fight on quality of life and standard of living.

Labour have scored it up and unless they have a change in leadership, they will lose the next election. Just will they lose out by enough to give reform an outright majority.

This remains a country where that Overton window is slightly right of centre in many areas. Tacking to the left will just see Labour chasing the greens who will be able to ape reform and be more extreme.

The idea of paying higher taxes is not as popular as you might think it is. Likewise, managing our immigration system is a high priority for most voters. Furthermore any sensible government needs to balance urgent priorities such as defence with a huge welfare bill.

I don’t think paying higher taxes should be more popular, and the simple fact that it is seen as the only thing about “the left” is testament to the terrible job Labour have done on pr and the press.

The Overton window is not right of centre in the UK. That would be equivalent to the views of the Tory party pre-Thatcher.

The Overton window is extreme right. Economically, it’s so far to the right so as to be obscene.

Taxes need to be realigned, not raised, per se, but any attempt is shot down by a press that has massive vested interests, and any nuance is lost in a terrible communications strategy.

The only time a party has proposed a shift was Corbyn, who won huge popular support despite the fact he was an appalling communicator and the press were totally and completely against him.

Look at the green surge in the UK, the popularity of Zohran Mamdani among conservatives in New York, the rise of Peter Magyar in Hungary, and you can see that people are starting to ignore the msm view and turn out for alternative options.

And just to reiterate, the Overton window is far right, not right of center. Explain to me why you think it is moderate?

I think that says more about your positioning than that of the window.

Liz Truss worked hard to put a limit on how far to the right economics would go.

[Which Tyler]

This remains a country where that Overton window is slightly right of centre in many areas. Tacking to the left will just see Labour chasing the greens who will be able to ape reform and be more extreme.

I think that says more about your positioning than that of the window.

Likewise, surely

[Sandydragon]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Which policies of Blair's New Labour would you like to see emulated by Starmer's Labour?

Continuing to frame immigration as a problem will continue to hand votes to Farage, no matter what policy you propose. You will be saying Farage is right, keep immigration as the big issue and voters will go to Reform because everyone knows that they will have the more radical policy in that area.

The only way to take oxygen from Farage is to change the message completely - immigrants are not the cause of declining living standards, getting rid of them will not fix your lives any more than Brexit did when that was the miracle cure sold by Farage. There is another cause, that is inequality, and there's a different cure for that. Unfortunately Starmer is a rich man paid for by even richer men and will never make that the message.

Ignoring immigration wont work, its too far gone for that. The situation is broken - thousands of people risking their lives on unseaworthy craft isnt a sign working well. Would anyone on here disagree with that?

If the benefits of immigration had been pushed a decade ago, that might have worked. Instead, the issue was seen as racist and ignored, allowing Farage, and worse, to capitalise on it. There has to be a sensible debate around numbers, skills, etc, but Labour won't survive by trying to ignore the issue.

If Labour were to adopt a pro business approach that might help them out. So far, they have strangled more growth than they have created. Looking at how they can help the economy to grow would be a start, working with business as Blair was quite happy to do, which might then provide the money for the giveaways the Labour party wants to throw about.

[Sandydragon]

This remains a country where that Overton window is slightly right of centre in many areas. Tacking to the left will just see Labour chasing the greens who will be able to ape reform and be more extreme.

I think that says more about your positioning than that of the window.

Likewise, surely

Thanks, but I'm very comfortable where I stand versus the right-wing populism of Farage and worse.

[Which Tyler]

Erm, odd reply.
Are you aware that I just suggested that you are centre-right, and consider that to be the natural positioning of the country?

Because it sounds like you think I grouped you in with the fascists; whilst quoting "centre right"

ETA: Of course, if you're suggesting that "Farage and worse" are "centre right", then I'm going to have to reassess my opinion of you

[Son of Mathonwy]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Which policies of Blair's New Labour would you like to see emulated by Starmer's Labour?

Continuing to frame immigration as a problem will continue to hand votes to Farage, no matter what policy you propose. You will be saying Farage is right, keep immigration as the big issue and voters will go to Reform because everyone knows that they will have the more radical policy in that area.

The only way to take oxygen from Farage is to change the message completely - immigrants are not the cause of declining living standards, getting rid of them will not fix your lives any more than Brexit did when that was the miracle cure sold by Farage. There is another cause, that is inequality, and there's a different cure for that. Unfortunately Starmer is a rich man paid for by even richer men and will never make that the message.

Ignoring immigration wont work, its too far gone for that. The situation is broken - thousands of people risking their lives on unseaworthy craft isnt a sign working well. Would anyone on here disagree with that?

If the benefits of immigration had been pushed a decade ago, that might have worked. Instead, the issue was seen as racist and ignored, allowing Farage, and worse, to capitalise on it. There has to be a sensible debate around numbers, skills, etc, but Labour won't survive by trying to ignore the issue.

If Labour were to adopt a pro business approach that might help them out. So far, they have strangled more growth than they have created. Looking at how they can help the economy to grow would be a start, working with business as Blair was quite happy to do, which might then provide the money for the giveaways the Labour party wants to throw about.

I didn't say ignore immigration, I said stop framing it as the problem. Other than a minority of racists, people are only bothered about immigration because they have been told endlessly, without any correction from Labour, that it is the cause of most of the problems in people's lives.

Of course they should fix the utterly and probably deliberately cocked-up asylum system so that there isn't a large number of people being kept in hotels at far too high a cost. If they were finally honest and said Brexit was the reason we have so many boats that would be funny too but obviously won't happen.

I think they're pretty happy to do whatever business wants, with the exception of the stupid increase in employers' NIs (but then Reeves is a moron and I disagree with many things she does). But do you really think being more friendly to business would give us growth? Who could be more friendly to business than the Tories? How much growth did they achieve?

[Stom]

Starmer is a terrible politician.

Of If I were Labour, I’d be looking to New Labour for the guidebook. Don’t tack left as that way alienates many voters who don’t love Labour but really don’t like Farage. Keep to the centre.

Ignoring immigration won’t work. You won’t have to be as extreme as Farage, but stopping the small boats and developing a working asylum and immigration system is crucial to keeping Farage as far away as possible. Labour MPs might not want that to happen, but public opinion isn’t with them, even if that same opinion isn’t as far to the right as reform.

Which policies of Blair's New Labour would you like to see emulated by Starmer's Labour?

Continuing to frame immigration as a problem will continue to hand votes to Farage, no matter what policy you propose. You will be saying Farage is right, keep immigration as the big issue and voters will go to Reform because everyone knows that they will have the more radical policy in that area.

The only way to take oxygen from Farage is to change the message completely - immigrants are not the cause of declining living standards, getting rid of them will not fix your lives any more than Brexit did when that was the miracle cure sold by Farage. There is another cause, that is inequality, and there's a different cure for that. Unfortunately Starmer is a rich man paid for by even richer men and will never make that the message.

Ignoring immigration wont work, its too far gone for that. The situation is broken - thousands of people risking their lives on unseaworthy craft isnt a sign working well. Would anyone on here disagree with that?

If the benefits of immigration had been pushed a decade ago, that might have worked. Instead, the issue was seen as racist and ignored, allowing Farage, and worse, to capitalise on it. There has to be a sensible debate around numbers, skills, etc, but Labour won't survive by trying to ignore the issue.

If Labour were to adopt a pro business approach that might help them out. So far, they have strangled more growth than they have created. Looking at how they can help the economy to grow would be a start, working with business as Blair was quite happy to do, which might then provide the money for the giveaways the Labour party wants to throw about.

I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt from my side here, and agree that there needs to be a big pro business approach. Small business. The same people Thatcher went after with pretty much all her policies, the "petite boulanger". I come from a pretty right of centre background, and while I am generally leaning further to the left, I still believe strongly that small, local businesses are the corner stone of the economy.

Big business, however, drains money from the economy. They rack up massive profits, which they pass on to shareholders, who save that money instead of putting it back into the economy, and pay a lower tax on their rewards than if they were employed.

First thing I would do is realign the tax system so that capital gains tax, dividends tax are aligned directly to income tax, and that you need to pay national insurance on those incomes. So a working class man making 50,000 a year pays the same tax as a rich man making 50,000 a year off his investments, because right now the latter pays less. That is neither fair nor good for the country.

We tend to look at what happened in the country AND the politics at the time, and then try to put two and two together sometimes. Did Blair have boom years because he was in power when the largest generation entered the workforce? Did he get to ride on the strong downward trend of unemployment? Because it was trending down very strongly, and continued to go down.

I would argue that Blair's success came about more because of what happened before him than what happened during his time. He reaped the benefits of the short-term (or medium term) boost to public funding given by the privatisation of services.

And that medium term boost has all gone now. We only get to feel the downside. We only see the rising prices, while the government has no leverage and no assets.

In fact, immediately after Blair has spent the money that came from these privatisations, we enter a period of "austerity" that has lasted until today and led to massive inequality and public services that are not fit for purpose.

Yet they are generally accepted facts. Public discourse around them is there, but it's not universal.

Because the Overton Window has been moved. Privatisation is a given. Big businesses are a given. Treating government like a "household" is a given. These are right leaning positions. They may align with your own views, but they are not centrist.